Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
720 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 353 PM/

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
EVENING...THEN WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF SAGINAW BAY OVERNIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RUN EAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...CROSSING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

FF

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 600 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE
WATCH. WILL KEEP WATCH GOING FROM GAYLORD SOUTH...GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ONGOING INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN AND SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 9 PM.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING BEHIND FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHETHER ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 353 PM/...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

LOW AMPLITUDE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN PLACE WITH FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE WSW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS SHOOTING A NUMBER OF
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PER MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SUBSTANTIALLY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PLAINS/ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES SHAPE...
APPEARS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST WILL BE IN FOR A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS A NUMBER OF WAVES DIVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING EAST COAST TROUGH AND A COUPLE PSEUDO CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DUMBBELL UP THROUGH THE NE.

BUT FIRST THINGS FIRST...HAVE TO GET THROUGH OUR CURRENT WEATHER
MAKER. POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING ONTARIO TODAY EXPECTED
TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT JUST THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL BE CLOSE...BUT THINK THAT ANY REMAINING
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH
RECENT ECMWF QPF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOME RAINFALL HANGING ON ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES. BUT OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER/COOLER AIR
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER STORY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM NUMBER TWO BEGINS TO WIND UP
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS PACIFIC SHORT WAVE (NOW APPROACHING THE PAC COAST) SLIPS
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HEADS INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SHARPENING WARM FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RAMP
UP QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
STRETCHING INTO NRN MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME. IF EVERYTHING
DEVELOPS AS PLANNED...A DECENT SETUP FOR HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MICHIGAN WITH A WIDE OPEN FLOW FROM THE
GULF/STRETCHED OUT FRONT SITTING ACROSS THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES. WILL SEE HOW IT GOES BUT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (EXTENDED PERIOD)...AS TALKED ABOUT
ABOVE...AMPLIFYING FLOW PATTERN AND SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS A COUPLE POTENT SHORT WAVES DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WET PERIOD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE DEEPENING SOMEWHAT
CUT-OFF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER JUST WHERE THIS CUTOFF ENDS
UP (GFS PLACES THE CUTOFF DOWN NEAR THE GULF). BUT FOR NRN
MICHIGAN...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE...COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY NOT LOOKING TOO BAD
RIGHT NOW AS LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIPS DOWN INTO THE
STATE IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW. BUT ANOTHER REINFORCING
NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS LOOKING TO ARRIVE DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NRN MICHIGAN. BUT
AGAIN...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WITH CHANCES LIKELY TO BE MADE BEFORE THEN.

ADAM

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 353 PM/

ADAM

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 713 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.   JK

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
603 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUBBARD LAKE            44.80N  83.59W
09/21/2010                   ALCONA             MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE SNAPPED OFF AND BLOCKING ROAD ALONG EAST SHORE OF
            HUBBARD LAKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000312

JZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

MIZ041-042-220000-
ARENAC MI-GLADWIN MI-
702 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 659 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SKEELS...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLADWIN...
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ALGER...
  STANDISH...
  AU GRES...
  WINEGARS...
  MAPLE RIDGE...
  OMER...
  TWINING...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.