Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

260 
WGUS73 KAPX 190826
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
426 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

MIC047-097-191115-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100819T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MACKINAC MI-EMMET MI-
426 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM EDT FOR FAR 
NORTHERN EMMET AND MACKINAC COUNTIES...

AT 417 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN OVER NORTHERN EMMET COUNTY AND 
BOIS BLANC ISLAND...WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MACKINAW 
CITY...WILDERNESS STATE PARK AND BOIS BLANC ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES HAVE FALLEN 
OVER THIS REGION...AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 700 AM.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 8438 4575 8450 4580 8462 4579 8471
      4574 8473 4574 8476 4574 8497 4576 8508
      4577 8508 4578 8501 4576 8480 4580 8477
      4579 8470 4582 8457 4580 8444 4582 8441
      4578 8434 4577 8434

$$

374 
WGUS73 KAPX 191036
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
636 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

MIC047-097-191043-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100819T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MACKINAC MI-EMMET MI-
636 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FAR NORTHERN EMMET 
AND MACKINAC COUNTIES...INCLUDING BOIS BLANC ISLAND...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. 
THUS...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS COME TO AN END.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT SEVERAL INSTANCES OF FLOODED 
PARKING LOTS AND LOW LYING AREAS...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL 
FLOODING HAS ENDED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4575 8438 4575 8450 4580 8462 4579 8471
      4574 8473 4574 8476 4574 8497 4576 8508
      4577 8508 4578 8501 4576 8480 4580 8477
      4579 8470 4582 8457 4580 8444 4582 8441
      4578 8434 4577 8434

$$

LAWRENCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 358 PM/

HIGH PRESSURE IS LOSING ITS GRIP OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO A COLD
FRONT THAT IS SWEEPING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MUCH DIFFERENT IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE IT HAS BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE THREAT OF
RAIN WILL END BY THURSDAY EVENING AND RETURN AGAIN BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

TJL

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1200 AM/...OVERNIGHT

THE FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SHOWING NEW LIFE AS THE 850 MB LLJ IS BEGINNING TO ADD FUEL TO
THE STORMS. ALONG WITH THE WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE 500 MB JET
THAT IS STRETCHED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO HAVE GONE BACK TO
CATEGORICAL TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR THE NIGHT IN E UPPER. SFC WINDS
HAVE ALSO SETTLED DOWN, SO HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS. TEMPERAUTURES
LOOK FINE AT THE MOMENT SO NO CHANGES NEEDED.

JSL

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 422 PM/...THURSDAY AND BEYOND

...OVERALL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL WARMTH FOR FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT RAINFALL IN SPOTS...

AFTER A BRIEF INTERRUPTION...TEMPS RECOVERED TODAY AND LATE SUMMER
WARMTH WILL REMAIN THRU AT LEAST NEXT TUE.

THU: CLDFNT SAGS SWD THRU NRN LOWER. LEFTOVER SHWRS /POSSIBLE
THUNDER?/ WILL BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AND EXPECTED TO BE DECREASING
IN COVERAGE THRU THE MRNG. MAINTAINED LOW CHC POP INTO THE AFTN
ALONG AND S OF M-72 FOR AN ISOLD THUNDERY REDEVELOPMENTS.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PCPN PROBABILITIES FOR .5 TO 1" /THRU SUNDAY/ HAVE
BEEN INCREASING OVR THE LAST 3 DAYS FROM FAR NW LOWER /FKS-PLN/ INTO
THE ERN U.P.  THIS INCLUDES CONSISTENT LOW PROBS FOR 2". THE GEM HAS
ALSO HAD THIS SIGNAL FOR HVY QPF. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK WET
BUT THERE'S NO GUARANTEE 2"+ MAX OCCURS IN OUR FCST AREA. 12Z
GFS/NAM NAILS WRN U.P./MN/WI. EITHER WAY...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE OVR THE NW HALF OF OUR FCST AREA.

AS IS APPEARS NOW...BELIEVE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL OCCUR FRI NGT INTO
SAT MRNG W/ THETA-E RDG MOVING THRU IN PULSE OF WAA ASSOCIATED W/
LLJ.

SHRTWV TROF CURRENTLY OVR PAC NW WILL MERGE W/ SUBTROPICAL TROF OVR
AZ. THIS TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE GTLKS FRI NGT INTO SAT. AT THE SFC
...THU'S FRONT WILL STALL JUST S OF THE GTLKS AND THEN LIFT BACK AS
A WARM FRONT FRI AS SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES AND TRIPLE PT LOW MOVES
INTO LAKE SUP SAT.

FRI: CLDS OVR SRN/WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA UNSURE HOW MUCH /IF
ANY/ PCPN LEAKS INTO NW LOWER COUNTIES.

MAX TEMPS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO CLDCVR AS TSTM COMPLEX EXPECTED
TO BE ON-GOING OVR WRN U.P./WI/MN. PLAYED TEMPS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW...USING BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDE WHICH OFFERS 74-82F.

SAT NGT: SHOWERY. THUNDER COULD BE POTENT. MCS WILL BE IN PROGRESS
NEARBY. RAINFALL COULD BE HVY.

RAISED MIN TEMPS 2-3F ABV GUIDANCE GIVEN EXTENSIVENESS OF CLDCVR.

PATTERN: FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THIS WKND AS POTENT
TROF MOVES ONSHR IN THE W. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH OVR THE CENTRAL USA WHICH WILL POKE INTO THE GTLKS BRIEFLY ON
MON. WRN TROF WILL ADVANCE NEWD ACRS SRN CANADA/NRN USA AND DRIVE A
PACIFIC CLDFNT THRU ON TUE. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV RDG FOLLOWS WED-THU
AS NEW TROF MOVES INTO THE W.

SUN-THU ESSENTIALLY HPC FCST.

MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BASIC FEATURES.

SUN-TUE LOOKING VERY WARM WITH +1 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB TEMPS.

TUE: COLD FROPA BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
SHWR THREAT WILL BE SLIM. IN COORD WITH MQT/GRR...RAISED MAX TEMPS
ABOVE GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFF FROM MON.

JH

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1024 PM/

WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AND THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO VARAIBLE
UNDER 10 KNOTS OVER THE LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WAVES HAVE
SUBSIDED TO ABOUT 3 FEET OR LESS, LOOKING AT THE BUOYS. SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA OVER PARTS OF N LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN LIGHTER THU-THU NGT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

FRI NIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE S-SW OVR LAKE MI AND SE-S
OVR LAKE HURON...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/ APPROACH OF SFC LOW.
SCA MAY BE REQUIRED WITH MAIN THREAT FROM FAR NRN LAKE HURON TO THE
BRIDGE AND FOR WHITEFISH BAY. COULD SEE A 4-8 HR PERIOD OF MARGINAL
GALES AT DETOUR PASSAGE.

JH/JSL

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1127 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

THE FRONT THAT IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE UPPER PENINSULA IS TAKING ITS TIME TO MOVE INTO N LOWER. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. IT LOOKS
LIKE, THAT THE VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WHILE THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
BEHIND THIS LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

JSL

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ342-344-345.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1210 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
192315-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1210 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN UPPER AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY NORTH OF M-72. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY AROUND DAYBREAK. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS OR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

ADAM/JH/JSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
304 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

MIZ016-017-190800-
CHEBOYGAN-EMMET-
304 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

...LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE STRAITS...

AT 300 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A A
NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
10 MILES WEST OF MACKINAW CITY TO 9 MILES EAST OF MACKINAW
CITY...MOVING EAST AT JUST 5 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 400 AM...CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN EMMET COUNTY...TARGETING THE MACKINAW CITY
AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

LAWRENCE