Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
842 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. THE 00Z KAMA RAOB INDICATED
THAT PWAT VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 1.1 INCHES BUT THIS TREND APPEARS TO
BE SHORT LIVED. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST TX ADVECTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS SEEN QUITE NICELY ON THE GOES
SOUNDER PWAT PRODUCT. GIVEN THE PLETHORA OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE
UNCAPPED TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL ZONES
WITH MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINING AS INHERITED. GIVEN THE TROPICAL
NATURE OF THIS ATMOSPHERE...THE NOCTURNAL FLARE UPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN SO HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. ALSO...THUNDER WAS KEPT IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH
TOMORROW DESPITE THE MENTION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS. OTHER MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO WIND/SKY GRIDS.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010/

AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORM ACTIVITY HAS ADDED TO THE MIX FOR
INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEERING FLOW IS
WEAK AND THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING. IF A STORM GETS OVER THE
TERMINAL...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. KAMA SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT THIS EVENING
FOR STORMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARBY AND OUTFLOWS ARE
APPROACHING. THE MOIST PROFILE AND CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BOUNDARIES
WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF STORMS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

WYNNE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS RUNNING WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. APPEARS THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS DOES POSE A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...THE BEST SHOT FOR FLOODING WOULD
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHICH WERE PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AS THE HIGHER RISK AREA BY THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
FLARING UP ON RADAR...AND THE VERY SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE
STORMS...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. PLUS...A FEW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL IN THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO THE FLOOD THREAT STILL SEEMS VALID. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
A MOIST PLUME OVER THE PANHANDLES...AND OBSERVED AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE INCREASED MOISTURE AS PRECIP WATERS RISE INTO
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE OTHER WRENCH IN THE SYSTEM IS THE TROPICAL ACTIVITY ONGOING IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND GIVEN THE UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES...ANTICIPATE THIS MOISTURE WILL HAVE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY
TO NOSE CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW NEAR THE PANHANDLES BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
12Z FRIDAY WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP THE MOISTURE PLUME PUSHED EAST INTO
OKLAHOMA OR NORTH TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH
OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
AND APPROACHING TROPICAL AIR SUPPORT THE ONGOING HIGH POPS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THEN KEEP THE HIGHER POPS FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. I AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED THAT THE FLOODING THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT WILL LET THE ONGOING WATCH PLAY
OUT BEFORE EXTENDING ANYTHING TODAY.

MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SW US ON SATURDAY
WHICH PRODUCES NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLES. THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN EAST COLORADO WOULD
FAVOR MORE CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COULD LIMIT HIGHS.
SO TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE WHICH WAS RUNNING IN THE
MID 90S WHILE CLIMO IS CLOSER TO 91. AFTER A BRIEF DRY DAY
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT FOR PRECIP. APPEARS THE WEST COAST RIDGE
REGIME FINALLY SETS UP TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS SO
FAVOR A TREND TOWARD GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED.

FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH MOIST
TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

24/21

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