Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1245 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AMARILLO...INCLUDING
KAMA DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THE
STORMS DIMINISH...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL USHER LOW CLOUDS NORTH INTO
KAMA AND KGUY. KDHT IS ON THE BORDERLINE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CEILINGS.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING. TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY
STAY NORTH. WE WILL KEEP CB REMARKS FOR NOW.

NUNEZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

UPDATE...
WITH THE EMERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE A BIT LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. NEW WATCH IS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 220 UNTIL 2 AM CDT FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY STABILIZE LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BEGIN TO COOL TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 212 UNTIL 10 PM FOR
MOST OF THE EXISTING WATCH. TEXAS...SHERMAN...MOORE...POTTER AND
RANDALL WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
PERSIST EAST OF THE DRYLINE THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE PANHANDLES.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

AVIATION...
DRYLINE HAS HALTED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES...AND WAS NOW DRIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS OVER KAMA AND KGUY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WE KEPT THE CB REMARK FOR KAMA AND KGUY
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED STORMS.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO KAMA AND KGUY WHEN
THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. WE ARE NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST
THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND WITH THE DRYLINE POSITION STILL
UNCERTAIN. KDHT IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR AT THIS TIME.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS ASSUMED A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL READY ERUPTED ALONG AND EAST OF
APPROACHING DRYLINE. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES DRYLINE HAS
SLIPPED INTO THE WESTERN ZONES WITH LOWER 30 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
WEST WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TD/S IN THE EAST. RUC MESO ANALYSIS
DATA REVEALS SBCAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS. TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
UNTIL 800 PM CDT. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY EVOLVE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SURFACE TROUGH AND
DRYLINE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT AND UNCHANGED AS
SEVERE WEATHER IS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DAMPEN
SOME DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY ATTM.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST DUE TO
RECENT RAINS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

08/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1015 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-251100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
1015 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS,.
AS A RESULT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM
CDT TUESDAY FOR THIS AREA.

IN ADDITION...SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
THEREFORE...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HAIL             AMARILLO                35.20N 101.82W
05/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON AMARILLO BLVD BETWEEN FLORIDA AND KENTUCKY

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000553

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     HAIL             2 N AMARILLO            35.23N 101.82W
05/25/2010  E1.50 INCH       POTTER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000554

EA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HAIL             1 WNW AMARILLO          35.21N 101.84W
05/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON AMARILLO BLVD BETWEEN THE STREETS OF FLORIDA AND
            KENTUCKY

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000555

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             3 SW WHITE DEER         35.40N 101.21W
05/25/2010  E1.00 INCH       CARSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000556

EA

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