Wind Advisory 9, NWS Albany, NY

663 
WWUS71 KALY 150900
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-152100-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0009.101015T1200Z-101016T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EDT SATURDAY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY PARK NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE LATER TODAY...AND WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE WIND MAY 
PRODUCE SPOTTY DAMAGE...MAINLY TO TREE LIMBS AND ALSO TREES WITH
LOOSENED SOIL FROM WET GROUND. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
POSSIBLE WET SNOW COMBINED WITH THE WIND WOULD INCREASE FALLING
OF LIMBS AND TREES...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES TO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS STORM WILL THEN ONLY
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THE 
STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

144 
WWUS71 KALY 151950
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-161000-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-101016T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY. 

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...AND WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE WIND MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY
DAMAGE...MAINLY TO TREE LIMBS AND ALSO TREES WITH LOOSENED SOIL
FROM WET GROUND. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WET SNOW COMBINED
WITH THE WIND WOULD INCREASE FALLING OF LIMBS AND TREES...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

838 
WWUS71 KALY 160242
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-162200-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-101016T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
1042 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6
PM EDT SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF MAINE
AND CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE
INFREQUENT OVERNIGHT BUT COULD STILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. ON
SATURDAY...THE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
FREQUENT.

THE WIND MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY DAMAGE...MAINLY TO TREE LIMBS AND
ALSO TREES WITH LOOSENED SOIL FROM WET GROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

525 
WWUS71 KALY 160745
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-162200-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-101016T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
345 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
15 TO 30 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH
UP TO 50 MPH.

THE WIND MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY DAMAGE...MAINLY TO TREE LIMBS AND
ALSO TREES WITH LOOSENED SOIL FROM WET GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

145 
WWUS71 KALY 161803
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-161915-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-101016T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
203 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
NOT BEEN AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN FORECAST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
303 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. MEANWHILE A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH
EAST INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A SOAKING
RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OUT TO SEA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A TREND TO SHIFT THE PRECIP MAX AREA TO
OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES. EARLIER...HAD UPDATED THE ZONES DUE TO
THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRING THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
MAY BE FORTHCOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEEPENING TROF...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EVENING. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL CONNECT TO ANOTHER
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERTICAL MOTION
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION ONLY 20-30
POPS THROUGH 6 PM...BEFORE INCREASING STEADILY BY 8 PM. THE MORNING
GOT OFF TO A CHILLY START...BUT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ALLOWED TEMPS
TO REBOUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOW 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT CLOUDED OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND ACCELERATES TOWARDS CAPE COD.
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AT 850 MB WILL STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE ATLANTIC.

MODEL GUIDANCE STILL NOT CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WHERE THE UPPER LOW
WILL CLOSE OFF AS WELL AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
CONSENSUS TO GO WITH 100 POPS EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...BUT LOCATION OF
HEAVY QPF HAS BEEN SHIFTING WITH EACH RUN AND IS THE MAIN QUESTION.
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GGEM NOW FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
GEFS/SREF TARGETING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE NOSE
OF THE 850MB U-COMP WIND ANOMALIES OF -4 TO -5 STDEV. PWATS DO NOT
GET EXCESSIVE WITH THIS STORM...WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND NO
TROPICAL CONNECTION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA AS IS AND RE-EVALUATE AFTER 12Z GUIDANCE. PLEASE REFER TO
HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO THE 980S AND
STALL NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERN DIRECTION AND STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL
BE COMMON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MIXING WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO
THINKING IS THAT POTENTIAL FOR 45+ MPH GUSTS IS MARGINAL AT THIS
TIME. MODELS SHOWING 45-50 KT AT 850MB...BUT WIND SPEEDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE MAY NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
THREAT IN HWO. SINCE THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH
COLDER AIR DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH AND
WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. MODEL DIFFERENCES AGAIN WITH REGARDS
TO TEMP PROFILES DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE GREATEST. THE NAM IS COLDEST DUE TO A
MORE WESTERLY POSITION TO THE UPPER LOW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A
FARTHER EAST POSITION...SO COOLING SHOULD NOT BE AS DRAMATIC. TEMPS
FROM 925MB TO 850MB LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY. THEN...COOLING OCCURS AT 850MB WITH SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING VALUES BUT 925 TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING. SO...THINKING IS
THAT THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VT. MOST OF THE QPF WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THEN...SO
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. JUST SOME LEFTOVER
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN FRIDAY...BUT
BETTER MIXING SHOULD OCCUR. ONCE AGAIN...WIND GUSTS COULD GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH 40S
AND 50S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAJOR STORM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS. AFTER
THAT...A PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR HIER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO GET A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW FOR A TIME
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS NOT THAT WELL
DEFINED...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM GOES BY...THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH HEIGHTS DROPPING AND
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...WITH LOWS ABOUT THE SAME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 40S AND 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE IN AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL
START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

KPOU WILL EXPERIENCE -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING STEADY -RA
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND 23Z. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 02Z/FRI AS RAIN INTENSIFIES TO MODERATE
AND POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIME OVERNIGHT. AFTER 10Z/FRI...CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE TO IFR AS WIND SPEEDS START TO PICK UP. BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...CAN EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND
GUSTS 20-25 KTS.

KALB WILL EXPERIENCE A LONGER PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA
EXPECTED AROUND 22Z. AFTER 01Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR WITH STEADIER PRECIP MOVING IN. AFTER MIDNIGHT/04Z...
CONDITIONS FURTHER DETERIORATE TO IFR WITH THE ONSET OF MODERATE
RATE...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK
UP WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THE WIND WILL BE CHANNELED
DOWN THE MOHAWK WITH GUSTS AROUND 23-28 KTS...BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

KGFL WILL BE THE LAST TERMINAL THE PRECIP WILL REACH...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z/FRI. AT THAT TIME...STEADY RAIN
WILL MOVE IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...FURTHER DETERIORATING TO
IFR AFTER 05Z. LATE FRIDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NGT...MVFR/IFR...-RA/RA LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY.
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. WINDY.
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 45 TO 55 PERCENT
TODAY...THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL ONLY DECREASE TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS ON FRIDAY
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE TIME WINDOW
FOR WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL WILL BE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM. MODELS STILL NOT
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. LATEST
GUIDANCE MAINLY FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST QPF OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS THE STORM CENTER DEVELOPS A BIT
FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...WILL ELECT TO LEAVE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS IS AND UTILIZE 12Z MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING
ANY FURTHER EXPANSIONS TO THE WATCH.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
OF THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BUT MAINLY ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2000 FEET. BY THIS TIME MOST OF THE QPF WILL HAVE FALLEN THOUGH...SO
RUNOFF POTENTIAL FROM RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

PRECIP STARTS TO WIND DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER
IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS... PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-151700-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1248 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

ALSO...AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT...RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR EVEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
SOME ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR. SHOULD THIS BECOME MORE DEFINITE...
A WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE APPROPRIATE
AREAS.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. SOME GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45
MPH. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COULD PERSIST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME IMMINENT... WIND
ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.