Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO RUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #655 IN EFFECT UNTIL
00Z/TUESDAY FOR SCHOHARIE...ALBANY...RENSEELAER AND BERKSHIRE
COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREA OF RAIN TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE LAKE GEORGE AREA BY
SUNRISE...THEN TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN VT AND EXIT BY MID MORNING.
EDGE OF CLEARING NOT ADVANCING MUCH...AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO ANCHOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR REGION. WEST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALONG A WARM FRONTAL THERMAL GRADIENT SEEMS TO
BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING...AND THE EDGE OF CLEARING
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...COOLING ALOFT
AND THE ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PROXIMATE TO THE MIDLEVEL WARMING
IS STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND LEADING EDGE OF BROAD BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND CORE. REGION WILL BE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
SEGMENT LATER TODAY...AND H5 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KT OR MORE.
SO...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...SOME
INSTABILITY...CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS...AND
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS...SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SO...EVEN IF CLOUDS BREAK UP AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL STILL BE LIMITED SUN...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED AS
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LEVEL FORCING. WITH THE
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SOME HAIL...AND WIND FIELDS POSSIBLE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND
WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE...AND EVENTUALLY ENOUGH COOLING WILL TAKE
PLACE TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES. STILL...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ABOUT EVERYWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES IN VALLEYS. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN AWAY FROM THE
LAKES...WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. BASED
ON MIXING POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. COULD THERE BE A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO MIXED WITH A RAIN
SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT? WORTH KEEPING
AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU-FRI...MOST LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF CA COAST...MIGRATES E ACROSS
PLAINS AND APPROACHES REGION SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SO...HAVE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS THU...STARTING WITH SLIGHT CHC
IN THE MORNING...AND INCREASING TO CHC BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
RETAINED CHC POPS FOR THU NT/EARLY FRI...THEN DECREASED FROM NW TO
SE BY FRI AFTERNOON...AS EXACT TIMING OF SYSTEM STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MUCH OF
FRI...EVEN IF RAINFALL ENDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 THU IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 60S ELSEWHERE...WITH MIN TEMPS THU NT/FRI
AM MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...FOR THU
MAXES...IF RAIN DEVELOPS QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS COULD BE
MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 60S EVEN ACROSS VALLEY
REGIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR FRI...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLEARING OCCUR FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

FRI NT-SAT NT...EXPECT A RATHER COOL FRI NT IN WAKE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
SOME 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COOLER MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM. FOR SAT...CURRENTLY EXPECT FAIR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY TURNING A BIT MILDER...AS A SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS MAY
ALLOW MAXES TO REACH THE 70S IN SOME VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF...AND WITH POTENTIAL COLD FRONT FOR LATE SAT INTO SAT NT.
EXPECT SAT NT/SUN AM TO BE A BIT MILDER THAN FRI NT/SAT AM...WITH
MAINLY 40S EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MINS MAY HOLD IN THE 50S ACROSS SOME
VALLEY REGIONS.

SUN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH TIMING OF FRONT...WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FRONT TO SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...ESP SHOULD HURRICANE IGOR CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING THE RIDGING ALONG THE
E COAST AND THUS SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED
SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS...ESP ACROSS N/W AREAS. OTHERWISE...FOR
MAXES...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED 65-70 IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT
70-75 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THROUGHOUT THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE VCSH AND CB TO COVER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ON RADAR.  OTRW...WE'RE LOOKING AT VFR CIGS...WITH
CHC IFR FOG AT KGFL...MVFR AT KALB LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  NOT MUCH LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SO LLWS NOT
A CONCERN.  SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.  10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-WED NGT...VFR NO WX...XCP CHC IFR/MVFR NIGHT FOG KGFL AND
KALB.
THU-FRI...CHC VFR/MVFR -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO RUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

TODAY...RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 55 AND 75 PERCENT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...WILL BECOME WESTERLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY AT 10 TO
20 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS... PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066-141100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
156 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
INCLUDING THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE
TACONICS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...
LITCHFIELD.

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
BERKSHIRE.

IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...GREENE...RENSSELAER...SCHOHARIE...AND
ULSTER COUNTIES.

NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-141100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
156 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FROST
IN HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TAW

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