Tornado Warning 28, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1003 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG AND
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND... AND WILL USHER COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR TOR WATCH ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC THRU 11Z.

LTST MSAS INDCTG FRNTL BNDRY NRLY STNRY ACROSS CSTL NC NE TO A PSN
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. FIRST BATCH OF MDT TO HVY RAIN HAS
SHFTD W OF CHES BAY THIS EVE WITH ONLY SCT PCPN ALONG THE COAST.
THE CELLS ALONG THE FRNT HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
AS TYPICAL WITH CELLS MOVG FROM THE OCEAN NW...WEAK SPIN UPS OCCUR
BTWN THE LAND AND WATER WITH THE PTNTL FOR A WATERSPOUT TO COME
ONSHORE AS A WEAK TORNADO. SUCH A CELL MOVED NW ACROSS ALBEMARLE
SND AFTR 5 PM AND CAME ASHORE NR HARVEY POINT IN PERQUIMNS CNTY NC.

SCND BATCH OF MDT TO HVY PCPN NOW MOVG N ACROSS ERN HALF OF NC AND
WILL OVRSPRD RGN NXT SVRL HRS. HOWEVER...BOTH WRF/RUC INDCT THAT
IT WILL TAKE SVRL MORE HRS FOR THE WDSPRD PCPN TO MAKE IT ACROSS
THE DELMARVA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THERE DOWN A BIT FOR THE NXT
FEW HRS INCRG AFTR MIDNITE. OTW...WITH CAD WELL ENTRENCHED W OF
BNDRY...DO NOT SEE MUCH THREAT FOR THUNDER THRU OVRNITE HRS XPCT
IN VCNTY OF FRNTL BNDRY AND JUST W OF IT WHERE SOME ELVTD THUNDER
MAY OCCUR. SO TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDER XCPT FOR SERN THIRD OF
FA. ANY SVR THREAT WILL CONT TO BE ACROSS SERN CNTYS AND UP COAST
IVOF BNDRY. ANTHR 1-2 INCHES OF PCPN XPCTD. LOWS GNRLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THU...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DOES THE MID LVL
DRY SLOT MOVE INTO THE FCST REGION AND START TO END THE RAIN. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER SREF/ECMWF HERE...GIVEN THE HIGHLY-
AMPLIFIED UPR LVL PATTERN (DEEP SRLY FLOW) AND THUS WHAT WOULD
MORE LIKELY BE A PROLONGED FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
MID ATLC REGION. BASICALLY...KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY BUT STARTED LOWERING THEM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF A
COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN THURS WITH H85 WINDS SHOWN TO
BE AROUND 70-80KTS...GIVING US AMPLE SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR THU AND EVEN LATE WED NIGHT
WILL BE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. TO ERR ON THE SAFE SIDE...HAVE ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HIGHS THU WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 70S. LOOKING FOR A PLEASANTLY COOL BUT DRY DAY ON
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING INTO EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FEATURES A
MERIDIONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
AUTUMN-LIKE AIRMASS WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 60S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN COOLER DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE WIND...N/NE VERSUS NW. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO 40S INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOW 50S
ALONG THE COASTLINES. MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST
ALLOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO AGAIN SURGE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURS AFTN. CONDITIONS RANGE FROM SHORT TERM LIFR IN HEAVIER
SHWRS TO VFR WITH -RA...LIFR CLDS ALG THE COAST WILL INCR
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL SITES IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THURS.
THESE LWR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THU.
DRYING OUT THU NGT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT REACHING
THE NC/SC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND NEARING SOUTH CENTRAL PA BY
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH RESULTS IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ADDITIONALLY A SECONDARY SYSTEM
FOLLOWS UP THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. 925 MB WIND SPEEDS REACH
OR EXCEED 50 KT...PERHAPS EXCEEDING 60 KT AS BAROCLINICITY INCREASES
ALONG THE FRONT AS TROPICAL AIR REMAINS TO THE EAST...AND
INCREASINGLY COOLER AIR ENCROACHES TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GENERAL GUSTINESS SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE AT
MOST...SO A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC AND SOUND...AND A GALE FLAG HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE BAY.
STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
CONVECTION...AND CAN BE HANDLED BY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ANY RAMP
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE WIND SHOULD
RELAX...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO GO INTO EFFECT AFTER
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER THIS SYSTEM
WITH A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLAGS PERSISTING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LATEST EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE INDICATES TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND
1 FT AT MOST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM RACING UP THE COAST THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED GIVEN THE LOW
ANOMALIES AND THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY
INCREASES IN TIDAL ANOMALIES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MDZ025.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060-061-
     065>070-079>081-087>089-092-093-095>098.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     062>064-071>078-082>086-090-091-094-099-100.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BKH/JDM
NEAR TERM...MPR/JDM
SHORT TERM...BKH/JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1124 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

NCZ013>017-030>032-VAZ096-097-300430-
BERTIE NC-CAMDEN NC-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHOWAN NC-GATES NC-HERTFORD
NC-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-SUFFOLK VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-
1124 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...

AT 1123 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NIXONTON TO
COLERAIN...OR FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEEKSVILLE TO 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AHOSKIE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MILL CROSSROADS AROUND 1130 PM EDT...
  WINFALL AROUND 1135 PM EDT...
  BOB WHITE FORK AROUND 1140 PM EDT...
  WOODVILLE AROUND 1145 PM EDT...
  RABBIT CORNER AROUND 1150 PM EDT...
  SIGN PINE AROUND 1155 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3657 7682 3656 7608 3625 7610 3628 7618
      3621 7610 3613 7611 3609 7621 3611 7630
      3608 7631 3607 7641 3603 7646 3603 7667
      3606 7671 3617 7674 3621 7672 3626 7670
      3620 7675 3613 7675 3603 7671 3603 7687

44

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

NCZ015>017-032-VAZ093-095>097-300845-
CAMDEN NC-CHESAPEAKE VA-ISLE OF WIGHT VA-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH
VA-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-SUFFOLK VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-
339 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

AT 338 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM DOWNTOWN PORTSMOUTH TO
WHITEHALL SHORES...OR FROM DOWNTOWN PORTSMOUTH TO WEEKSVILLE...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CHURCHLAND AROUND 345 AM EDT...
  WESTERN BRANCH AROUND 350 AM EDT...
  SOUTH MILLS AROUND 355 AM EDT...
  CRITTENDEN AROUND 400 AM EDT...
  DRIVER AROUND 405 AM EDT...

EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3698 7661 3697 7649 3689 7647 3692 7644
      3690 7638 3693 7634 3696 7633 3696 7626
      3622 7608 3627 7613 3627 7618 3625 7613
      3622 7613 3619 7607 3615 7606 3614 7630

44