Storm Warning 1, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1255 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY OUT TO SEA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFFSHORE AT 01Z. DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID CLOUD COVER HAVE OVERSPREAD
CWA...LEADING TO VERY SLOW TEMP DROP. MOST AREAS STILL AOA 32
DEG...AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE MORE THAN A 3-5 DEG DROP FROM
CURRENT LEVELS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO
SRN/WRN NC...WITH RAIN AT CLT AND OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS...AND
SNOW AT AVL. IN ADDITION...RAIN THRUT TN IS GENERALLY NOT A GOOD
SIGN FOR A LOT OF FROZEN PRECIP RICHMOND SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MAIN POINTS WELL IN HAND...ALTHOUGH RAISED MINS SVRL
DEG OVER LOWER MD ERN SHORE...AND ALL OF VA EXCEPT SE PTNS.
ARRIVAL OF FIRST PRECIPITATION IN AKQ CWA BETWEEN 09-12Z STILL
LOOKS GOOD. ONLY QUESTION IS WHAT TYPE WILL IT BE? AT THIS
POINT...WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
PRECIP STARTS AS RAIN AVC...PTB...EMV AREAS...IF CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE ANY PROXY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH ANTICIPATED STM ARRIVES FRI...THEN (SCNDRY) LO PRES DVLPS
INVOF VA CAPES ERY SAT. THE BATTLE LINE WL BCM DRAWN ACRS THE
HEART OF THE FA (NE-SW)...AND KPG PREV THINKING THAT LN WL BE FM
ABT SBY TO RIC TO FVX. CONTS TO BE QUITE A SPRD BTWN THE WRMR
(NAM) AND THE COLDER (GFS). THE TRANSITION ZN FM RA TO SN XPCTD TO
LIFT NNW THROUGH THE FA BY FRI EVE...WHR WL IT STOP? CONCERN STILL
EXISTS/CLIMO SUGGS THAT W/ RETREATING SFC HI PRES...AND STRNG WAA
ALOFT...THE SITU LEADS TO ENUF WRMG NR/E OF I95 (W/ PSBL XCPTN FAR
NRN AREAS IN NRN NECK VA...AND FAR INTR LWR MD ERN SHR -
DORCHESTER CTY) FOR RAIN TO FALL BY FRI EVE AND DURG A PORTION OF
FRI NGT.

STM DVLPS/INTENSIFIES INVOF VA CAPES ERY SAT...B4 HEADING OUT TO
SEA. A TRANSITION TO SN FOR MOST AREAS XPCTD (FM NNW TO ESE) FM LT
FRI NGT THROUGH SAT AFTN. ATTM...GENLY AGREE W/ HPC SN ACCUMS...W/
VRY TIGHT GRAD ALG/N OF THE BATTLE ZN (FVX- RIC-SBY). ACCUMS WL
COME IN TWO PARTS...ONE FRI INTO FRI EVE...THE OTR ON SAT. HIEST
AMTS (1 FOOT+) XPCTD FM PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER CTY TO AREAS N AND
NW OF RIC/FVX...OTRW XPCTD AMTS AVGG 2-8" ACRS MUCH OF THE FA BY
THE END OF THE STM. RPLCG WATCH W/ WRNG FOR THE NRN RIM OF FA THIS
PACKAGE. QUESTIONS RMN AS TO WHEN OR IF AREAS BORDERING THE WRNG
WL HV ACCUMS 4+"...SO THE WATCH RMNS UP FOR THOSE AREAS.

OTR CONCERN IS PSBL MOD/HVY RA OVR ESE VA/NE NC FRI EVE INTO FRI
NGT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED AS QPF AMTS OF 1 TO 3" XPCTD.

LASTLY...XPCTG GSTY NE WNDS TO DVLP...ESP TWD THE CST FM FRI NGT
INTO SAT (AS SCNDRY LO BEGINS TO DVLP/TAKE OVR). GUSTS TO 40-50
MPH PSBL...ESP ON THE ERN SHR.

DRYING/CLRG OUT SAT NGT. COLD/DRY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MID ATLC RGN...HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WK. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS OUT
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE AN UPR LOW WILL DVLP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST ON SUN. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE GRIDS NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY OF
WHETHER THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS WILL INTERACT/PHASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR ANYTHING BUT RAINFALL TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA ON TUE/WED. RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE WRN CONUS LATER IN THE WK LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE ERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU 12Z AS MID LVL CLDNS CONTS TO INCRS OVRNITE.
PCPN SHIELD FROM APPRCHG LOW OVRSPRDS RGN S-N AFTR 13Z. AIRMASS
COLD ENUF TO SPRT PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW AT KRIC AND SBY.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF THAT SLEET MIXES IN AT RIC BY 20Z WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY 00Z. WILL KEEP PCPN ALL SNOW THRU FCST PRD
AT SBY BUT SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AFTR 00Z DUE TO WRMR AIR FROM THE
OCEAN. OTW...RAIN OVRSPRDS SERN TAF SITES ALTHOUGH PHF MAY HAVE A
BRIEF RAIN/SLEET AT ONSET. CIGS/VSBYS QUICKLY FALL FROM MVFR TO
IFR THRU OUT THE DAYLIGHT HRS. BY 00Z...P-GRDNT QUICKLY INCRS FROM
THE E AS DEEPENING LOW PRS APPRCHS NC OUTER BANKS. BUFFER DATA
SUGGESTS WND GUSTS AOA 30 KTS ACROSS SERN TAF SITES THUS HAVE
INCLUDED G30 KTS AT PHF...35 KTS AS BOTH ORF/ECG. LTST DATA ALSO
SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED THUNDER PSBL AT ECG FRI NITE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TO LOW THIS FAR OUT TO PUT IN TAF (PLUS IT MAYBE AFTR
06Z). WILL LOOK AT THE THUNDER PSBLTY FOR THE 12Z TAF.

IFR CONDS CONT SAT AS STORM INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE. PRECIP BECOMES
ALL SNOW B4 TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES SAT NITE THEN ENDING. GUSTY
WNDS CONT SAT AND SAT NITE AS WELL.

VFR CONDS RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE WITH A CHC FOR LGT PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE HGTS STILL LINGERING NR 5 FT FROM VA/NC BRDR TO CURR BCH LGT
SO EXTENDED SCA UNTIL 10 PM.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTN...WITH BUILDING WINDS/WAVES LIFTING FROM S TO N. WINDS WILL
PICK UP RATHER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS GRADIENT BUILDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. OPTED TO GO WITH
GALE HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AS SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE GALES DEVELOP. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD
SCA AHEAD OF GALES IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF A LAG IN CHANGEOVER. HAVE
WENT WITH SCA FOR CRTK SND AHEAD OF GALES AS THERE WILL BE MORE OF
A PROLONGED SCA EVENT THERE. QUESTION THEN TURNS TO NRN HALF OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH LOW END STORM CONDITIONS
ON SUN. GUIDANCE STILL WAVERING ON TIMING AND POTENTIAL AREA FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS ON SAT...WITH COORD WITH PHL WENT WITH WENT WITH
STORM WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE OCEAN FACING
COASTLINE OF THE ERN SHORE AND ALONG THE SRN BAY OF SE VA AND
COASTAL NE NC. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
BEGINNING EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WATER LEVELS
REACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
APPROACHING MODERATE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS (ESP ALONG THE
MD/VA ERN SHORE). A WHERE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CURRENT FCST DOES NOT HAVE ERN HENRICO RECEIVING 6" OR MORE FROM
THE UPCOMING STORM. IF RICHMOND AIRPORT/RIC WERE TO RECEIVE A 6" OR
GREATER STORM TOTAL OF SNOW FROM THE UPCOMING EVENT...THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR 3 EVENTS OF 6" OR MORE OF SNOW THIS SEASON. THIS HAS ONLY
OCCURRED 3 OTHER TIMES SINCE THE LATE 1800S (1946-47, 1959-60, AND
1961-62).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ021-022.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ023-024.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ084-086>100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ074>076.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ095-098>100.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ072-073-077-078-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ065-066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ067-068-070-071.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...CCW/JEF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CCW
CLIMATE...LKB

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