Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH MONDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN VIRGINIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORT WAVES IN WNW FLOW MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY
PRECIPITATION...AS WAVES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW. EXPECT TO
HAVE SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
RADAR IMAGES SHOW SOME INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NW CWA (AS
EXPECTED) AND THE MIDDLE PENINSULA (NOT EXPECTED). EXPECT TWO MAIN
AREAS OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE FIRST IS ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS AND SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MOVE TO
THE EAST. THE SECOND IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NC
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER S/W ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA.
WILL PUSH POPS UP FOR LATE THIS AFTN/TNT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S.

ENERGY FROM NXT S/W PROGGED TO APPRCH WRN/SWRN VA ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY
SCT (30%) POPS AFTR 18Z MOST AREAS. M SUNNY SKIES BECOME PT SUNNY
THIS AFTRN. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS GNRLY IN THE L-M90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARND 100 GIVEN DP TMPS ARND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DMNSHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. ANTHR WRM AND MUGGY NITE WITH LOWS IN THE L-M70S.

LTL PATTERN CHANGE TUE/WED...AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS INTACT WITH
ZONAL MID LVL FLOW OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS. HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIMES (AFTN/EVENING).
TSTMS CHCS SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS WRN CNTYS TUE AFTRN AS WEAKENING
FRNTL BNDRY LINGERS OVER NRN VA. HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED IN THE
L-M90S. LOWS IN THE 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN ARND 100.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMAINING HOT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LO CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN
AND EVENG SHRAS AND TSRAS. HI PRES ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FM THE SRN
PLAINS EWRD TO OFF THE SE CST...WITH GENEARLLY W TO NW FLO ALOFT IN
PLACE FM THE NRN PLAINS EWRD INTO THE NE U.S. AND MID ATLC REGION
THRU AT LEAST SAT. WEAK SHRTWV WAVES/ASSOC TROFINESS WILL MOVE ACRS
THE AREA FM TIME TO TIME...AND CUD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD CONVECTION.
AN ACTUALLY COLD FRNT MAY DROP INTO/ACRS THE REGION LATE SAT NGT OR
DURING SUN...PROVIDING A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SCTD CONVECTION.

MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 90S THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MID TO UPR
90S PREVALENT ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THU THRU SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND RUC SUGGEST SOMEWHAT OF AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH RIC...SBY...ORF...AND PHF HAVING THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
CAST SOME DOUBT ON THIS SCENARIO...SO THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED FOR
RIC...SBY...PHF...AND ORF WITH THE ROUTINE 18Z TAFS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
FEW MODERATELY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT SHOULD PREVENT ANY FORMATION OF FOG. A RATHER GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM FOR TNGT THRU TUE. WITH HI PRES
REMAINING ANCHORED ALNG OR OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST AND A MAIN FRNTL
BNDRY STAYING N OF THE AREA...EXPECTING GENERALLY SW WNDS TO PREVAIL
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF STRNGER TSTM WND SPEEDS/GUSTS...SW
WNDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KT...WAVES 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALS
NEAR TERM...ALS
SHORT TERM...ALS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...TMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-191915-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-191915-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

09

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
847 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ROCKVILLE           37.71N 77.68W
07/18/2010                   HANOVER            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE FELL ON POWERLINE

&&

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 WNW DOWNTOWN RICHMOND 37.57N 77.59W
07/18/2010                   HENRICO            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES FELL ACROSS RIVER ROAD

&&

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
857 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S PAMPA               37.50N 76.59W
07/18/2010                   GLOUCESTER         VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN

&&

JFOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
901 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

VAZ064-074>076-190200-
CAROLINE VA-ESSEX VA-RICHMOND VA-WESTMORELAND VA-
901 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
VIRGINIA NORTHERN NECK...

AT 859 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LORETTO...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHAMPLAIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR LORETTO AT 905 PM EDT...CHANCE AT 910 PM EDT...LEEDSTOWN AT 915
PM EDT...PEEDS AT 925 PM EDT...FONESWOOD AT 930 PM EDT...LERTY AT 935
PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THIS STORM REACHES YOUR AREA. REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3821 7694 3818 7686 3818 7677 3816 7672
      3817 7670 3816 7661 3800 7661 3798 7663
      3804 7721 3819 7721 3815 7712 3816 7709
      3822 7706 3823 7695

GINGRICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
903 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SAINT STEPHENS CHUR 37.80N 77.02W
07/18/2010                   KING AND QUEEN     VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 14

&&

JFOSTER