Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
518 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND PUSHES
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MADE A QUICK TWEAK BASED UPON RADAR AND LATEST 18Z NAM TO RAISE
POPS UP SOME MORE...GOING CATEGORICAL FOR A TIME AROUND 00Z ACROSS
SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NAM STILL LOOK A LITTLE SLOW SO
TRENDED ABOUT 3 HRS FASTER THAN THE NAM WHICH THEN COINCIDED
NICELY WITH RADAR TRENDS. MAIN THREAT IN STORMS CONTINUES TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNBURST...BUT SEVERAL CELLS GETTING STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL. THE FRONT IT SELF IS STILL WELL WEST
OF THE AREA...BUT CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING IN A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTION TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES TO SURGE TO 3000-3500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 18Z...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY KICKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND BEGINNING NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND AFTER 19Z (3
PM)...AND THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE VERY
LOW VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY...SO
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG BASED ON THE COOLER NAM...WHICH WAS
CHOSEN BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING UPPER
JET ENERGY AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BRING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO THE TIDEWATER AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S. ELSEWHERE...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED WITH MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND OVERSPREADS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO THE LOW AND MID 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT
CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US WITH A NORTHEASTERN US/ATLANTIC
CANADA UPR TROUGH. THE UPR TROUGH LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDING EAST BEHIND IT AND PUSHING THE WARM AIR BACK TOWARD THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HV HELD ONTO LOW END POP FOR MAINLY ISO/WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRAS/TSTMS TUE-THU WITH THE AREAL CVG LKLY TO BE LOW.
OTW...MAINLY DRY FOR SUN-MON PERIOD ACROSS CWA.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WINDS VEER FROM SSE TO SSW MONDAY INTO
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING FOR A (ANOTHER) GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOK FOR MAXIMA TO JUMP BACK INTO THE M/U 90S FOR MOST ZONES
TUE/WED BEFORE MODERATING A BIT BY LATE NEXT WEEK W/WEAK COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE RGN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN TSTMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. CB REMARKS WERE
MENTIONED AT THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT RIC AT 21Z AND FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH A LITTLE LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...W/SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT
MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTN AND WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVNG.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI
AND WILL LIKELY BE WEAK. KEPT LIGHT MOSTLY WESTERLY WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE. THIS IS BEST REFLECTED BY THE NAM
MOS.

SOME CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL FRI AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN
PORTIONS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT THROUGH TUE. NO
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY
ALLOWING FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS THIS AFTN...WHICH PREDOMINANT CONDS
REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITERIA...SO HV ELECTED TO CONTINUE HOLDING
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS WITH THIS PACKAGE. EXPECT WNDS TO REMAIN ~15 KT.
OTW...PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WITH SHRAS/TSTMS AHEAD OF
FRONT...WITH SVR TSTM WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE WATERS (EXCEPT S OF
VA/NC BORDER).

COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRI.
AGAIN...EXPECTED THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG PUSH FROM THE SFC
HIGH BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT...NOT REALLY EXPECTING TO SEE ANY
SIG WINDS BEING AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NNE
FRI AFTN/EVE...AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE ENE OVER THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO SSE BY MONDAY AND SSW BY MIDWEEK.
NEXT ORGANIZED PCPN CHC COMES WITH NEXT SLOW COLD FROTNAL PASSAGE
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...ESS/AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>100-061745-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
133 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656-061745-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
133 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

ANZ633-658-061745-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
133 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-061745-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
133 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
541 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE POWHATAN           37.58N 77.88W
08/05/2010                   POWHATAN           VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NE OF POWHATAN A TREE FELL ON POWER LINES ON JANET LN.

0529 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W POWHATAN            37.54N 77.94W
08/05/2010                   POWHATAN           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR POWHATAN AT US 60 AND US
            522.

&&

DP

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