Wind Advisory 7, NWS Juneau, AK

626 
WWAK77 PAJK 132055
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1155 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2010

AKZ018-132200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-100113T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1155 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2010

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY. 

WINDS IN THE SKAGWAY AREA ARE DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT
THIS TIME...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
127 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THRU WED. A
SFC LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF BUT SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED.
A SHORTWAVE TROF AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BE N OF THE AREA BY LATE WED MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL MOVE NE INTO THE AREA
WED. ARCTIC FRONT ALONG A FIVE FINGER TO JUST S OF ELFIN COVE
LINE WILL RETREAT N AND BE JUST S OF A JUNEAU TO HOONAH LINE BY
LATE THIS EVENING...STALL THERE OVERNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE N TO
JUST S OF THE  HAINES AREA WED.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TIMING ANY PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING N INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. AM GOING TO BASE THE TIMING OF CHANGING SNOW TO RAIN
WHEN THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIFT N OF ANY AREA. THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS SHOULD BE STALLED DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE S TONIGHT...MAINTAINING AN OFFSHORE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS
OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE LOW MOVES N...THE FRONT SHOULD RESUME ITS
NORTHWARD RETREAT WED MORNING. THE PAYA AREA SHOULD SEE SNOW
EITHER MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT. WITH OTHER LOCATIONS
AFTER ARCTIC FRONT HAS GONE BY TO THE N.

 AS FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS...SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL HAVE
A FAIRLY SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO IT. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...LIKED THE WAY THE UKMET HANDLED THE PRECIP AREA AS
SYSTEM LIFTS N. THIS WILL BRING DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE
ERN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT...WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN ZONES
26..28..AND 29 TONIGHT. THE NEXT SET OF ZONES N AND W OF THERE
WILL SEE AROUND 0.1 TO 0.4 INCHES OF PRECIP...AND FURTHER N AND W
LESS THAN 0.1. THE ONLY ZONE THAT APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE THE PRECIP
BUT STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TONIGHT IS ZONE 25. WILL BE
ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVY FOR THAT ZONE STARTING AT 9 PM THIS
EVENING...UNTIL 6 AM WED. WILL GO WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
THERE. FURTHER N AND W OF ZONE 25...SHOULD SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOW TONIGHT. BY TIME THE SYSTEM FOR WED GETS IN...EXPECT ONLY
THE FAR NRN AREA TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND MAY
NEED A WINTER WX ADVY FOR ZONE 19 THEN. THE AREAS TO THE S SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN WED MORNING.

 AS FOR THE CURRENT PUBLIC HAZARDS...WILL PROBABLY LET THE
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 18 AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
19 EXPIRE WITH THE 4 PM ISSUANCE. MAY EXTEND PAYA WINTER WX ADVY
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BUT WILL SEE WHAT THEY ARE DOING THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION.

&&

.LONG TERM...A TRANSITION PERIOD AT THE START OF LONG TERM AS
CURRENT LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND A 980MB LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE N PAC. LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWING TROUGH TRACKING E OVER THE
AK GULF OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LVL
LOW MOVING OVER THE ALEUTIANS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SHORT WAVES FROM SOUTHERN FLOW MOVING
INTO THE PANHANDLE. LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
AND A MIX OF PRECIP TENDING MOSTLY TO RAIN.

KEEPING A WET PATTERN OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN SNOW LINE
MOVING A BIT TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING POINT SO THE MIX OF SNOW COULD INCREASE AND BRING SOME
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRIDAY WILL BRING THE
NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER AS A 980 MB LOW MOVES UP FROM THE N PAC TO
TACK ALONG THE THE W PANHANDLE COAST. MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
BRINGING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW FURTHER TO THE EAST. GFS WAS A BIT
TO FAR TO THE EAST WITH THE NAM AND EC IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WINDS
IN THE GULF WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST
WITH WIND ADVISORY GUSTS IN ZONES 23, 27 AND POSSIBLY 28.
TIGHTENING EAST WEST PRESS GRADIENT ALSO PRODUCING SOME HIGHER
GUSTS IN CHANNELED TERRAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ANOTHER CONCERN OF AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL
THROUGH TUE WOULD BE FLOODING. WHILE QPF VALUES WERE ONLY AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH MELTING SNOW PACK COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SAT WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH STRONGER LOW IN THE W GULF AND BRINGING THE NEXT N PAC LOW
FASTER AND FURTHER E. HPC GUIDE TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EC
BUT THEY FELT NEITHER MODEL SOLUTION WAS OUT OF THE QUESTION AND
TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND. FELT THE TRACK OF THE EC ALONG WITH AN
HPC BLEND WOULD BE A GOOD CHOICE HOWEVER DECIDED TO KEEP GRIDS
AFTER DAY 5 AS IS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION WAS AVAILABLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM WAS ABOUT
AVERAGE WITH SOME GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. STILL SOME ISSUES WITH
HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL MOVE. AFTER DAY 4
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY BUT NEW MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE
COMING MORE IN LINE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ019.
         BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ018.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-036-042-043.

         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

RWT/PRB