Wind Advisory 39, NWS Juneau, AK

716 
WWAK77 PAJK 140727
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1127 PM AKDT TUE APR 13 2010

AKZ018-140830-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-100414T1100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1127 PM AKDT TUE APR 13 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
111 PM AKDT TUE APR 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...THE NAM 12Z RUN IS BEING USED AS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE AND THE PRECIP FOOTPRINT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MATCH  SO
FAR TODAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS
GOOD, AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO IT.

 LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS NE FOR OVER 1200 NM AND OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME.  THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE ALOFT IS
TILTING NW ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE MERIDIONALLY.

 THIS RIDGE IS ALSO BROADENING AND RAPIDLY LOSING AMPLITUDE DUE
TO A STRONG SECTION OF POLAR FRONT ZONE THAT HAS ENTERED FROM
THE W. THIS FRONT SHOWS UP ON THE PAYA 12Z RAOB AS A 750 MB
INVERSION THAT IS BOTH SHARP AND STRONG.  THIS FRONT EXTENDS  ENE
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER,  AND
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH  GULF
COAST. THE RAINFALL HAS SPREAD SE ALONG THE PANHANDLE BUT NOT
BEYOND FREDERICK SOUND, VERY MUCH LIKE THE NAM MODEL.

 THE STRONG FLOW FM THE SW OVER OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND ST ELIAS
IS AIDING PRESSURE FALLS IN SRN YUKON TERRITORY AND IS THE REASON
FOR THE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PAGY. NOTE THE WINDS SHOULD
DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES LANDFALL AND
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NW FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL
9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR
PKZ012.          SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

 &&

.LONG TERM...RIDGING AT SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
PACIFIC NE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SLOWLY
REBUILD NORTH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH SPREADS FROM
SOUTHEAST GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHERN B.C. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NE GULF
WSW TO KODIAK ISLAND BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS WEST OF
YAKUTAT. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT START
TO DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONCENTRATE ON WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY GRIDS TODAY AND ONLY MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES FOR SAT-NEXT TUE GRIDS.

WILL END ALL PRECIP EXCEPT FOR PAYA WESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD AND WILL KEEP A
HEAVY CLOUDY COVER IN FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN THIRD EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO AN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT CLOUD COVER
FOR PAYA AND WESTWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN MARINE LAYER INTO
FRIDAY.

SOUTH OF RIDGE AXIS SKIES WILL BE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NAM SUGGESTING A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SO WILL ADD AREAS
OF FOG. BY THURSDAY INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG RADIATIONAL HEATING AND
WAA. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS UP TO +14C THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SOMEWHAT WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60F. ALL OF SOUTHEAST EXPECTED TO HAVE NICE FRIDAY BUT
SIGNAL IS WEAKER AS RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OFF SE WHICH ALLOWS
ONSHORE FLOW...OR AT LEAST A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. WILL TREND HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

DO NOT SEE ANY MAJOR WIND PROBLEMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WILL HAVE A DECREASING SMCR IN NE GULF AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WED
NIGHT BUT LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN. EXPECT MORE OF A
DIURNAL WIND CYCLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES LOWER CONFIDENCE AND WILL OPT TO
LEAVE GRIDS ALONE TODAY AND REVISIT TOMORROW. THERE IS A GENERAL
LACK OF ANY LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BUT DIFFERENCE IN THE SMALL
SCALE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. CURRENTLY A CASE
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY OR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS COULD BE INFERRED FROM
EACH MODELS. MOS POPS AND TREND TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK SUGGEST RAIN LIKELY BY SUNDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

JBT/MM