Wind Advisory 35, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
253 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...IN THE SHORT RANGE LARGE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK RIGHT
ON TRACK FROM THINKING EARLIER. LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTH
WITH FRONTAL BAND REACHING OUT TO COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING. WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED OVER ZONES 23 AND 27 THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENING SOME BY MORNING. FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A SECONDARY LOW ON THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF. STRONG WINDS WITH
SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH HECATE STRAIT. AND TO THE SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT. KEPT HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN INSIDE AS
PLANNED SO FAR.

MODEL SOLUTION USED WAS THE NAM SOLUTION IN THE SORT RANGE. WINDS
SLIGHTLY LESS THERE THAN WHAT WAS IN THE FORECAST BUT DID BUMP
THEM UP A FEW KNOTS TO KEEP THEM CLOSER TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM.
UPPER LVL TROUGH DOMINATES THE AK GULF THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE NEXT FRI...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LVL TROUGH. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UPPER LVL
PATTERN. JET STREAM REMAINS JUST S OF THE AK GULF WITH 300 MB JET
STREAKS UP TO 190 KTS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THIS
STRONG JET MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ID LARGE SYSTEMS.

AT THE SFC 965 MB LOW IN THE AK GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK NW TOWARD
KODIAK WITH A SECONDARY LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING
E TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. 850 MB LLV JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND
LOW NOW ABOUT 70 KTS...SFC WINDS STILL CLOSE TO WARNING LVL BUT
LOOKS LIKE GUSTS MAY STILL BE BELOW 60 MPH. BUT STILL FELT STORM
FORCE WINDS IN PKZ36 AND 41 WERE REASONABLE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO PAGY AS NORTH SOUTH
GRADIENT INCREASES. COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION WITH THE
RIDGE BUT WITH LOWER POPS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW.

NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST S OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE W GULF
BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS STILL THE FASTEST AND STRONGEST COMPARED TO
THE EC. WWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT LOW SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS
MOSTLY LIQUID WITH SOME SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH.

EC MODEL RUN TO RUN HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AS THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MORE OF AN OUTLIER. DID FEW CHANGES TO THE TOMORROW NIGHT
DAY 3 PERIOD THEN BEGAN BLENDING IN 00Z EC. FROM DAY 5 ONWARD
BLENDING IN HPC GUID WITH EC. GFS STILL TOO FAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. STILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WARNING LVL GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE THEN DROPS AS DETAILS OF THE NEXT SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS STILL NOT WELL RESOLVED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR AKZ023-027.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-032>035.

&&

BEZENEK/PRB