Storm Warning 49, NWS Juneau, AK

572 
FZAK67 PAJK 011150
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 1 2010 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-020100-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 1 2010 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL TRACK NORTH
TOWARDS COOK INLET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING. 

$$

PKZ310-020100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 1 2010 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. STRONGEST WIND WEST OF 140 WEST. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
234 PM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

.SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THOUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MODERATELY GOOD AS A 100 KT
JET AT 250 MB ALONG WITH A VORT MAX AT 500 MB HELP STRENGTHEN THE
LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
OFFSHORE AND OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOR THE
INNER CHANNELS, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
AT THE MOMENT BRINGING MODERATE RAIN TO YAKUTAT. THAT FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE NORTH BY LATER TONIGHT. ON ITS HEELS IS THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY AND WILL
BE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

 UNTIL THE FRONT MAKE LANDFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS,
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER. WHILE OFFSHORE AREAS WILL SEE GALE FORCE
WINDS, AND COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, I
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIND ADVISORY WINDS TO COME UP WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

 THE MODELS TODAY WERE IN NOT TOO BAD AGREEMENT TODAY. NAM AND EC
HAVE REACHED AN AGREEMENT ON THE LOW TRACK WITH IT GOING JUST
NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THE FRONT REACHING
THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SEEMS TO BE GOING OFF ON ITS OWN TANGENT WITH THE LOW GOING INTO
KODIAK AND THE FRONT REACHING THE PANHANDLE JUST A BIT SLOWER
THEN THE OTHER MODELS. CONSIDERED THE GFS AN OUTLIER AND USED A
COMBO OF THE NAM AND THE EC FOR UPDATES TODAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS MAIN FEATURE IN THE AK
REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NW ON THE BACK SIDE ON THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
KEEP IT FAIRLY STATIONARY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRAVEL
ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AK
GULF AND PANHANDLE. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS
GENERAL UPPER LVL PATTERN BUT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THESE SHORT WAVES HAS SOME FAIR UNCERTAINTY.

STORM FORCE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM TRACKS INTO KODIAK AS OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES OVER THE
PANHANDLE. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY SAT A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL AK GULF ON SUN.
ANALYSIS OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN SPED UP WITH PRECIP BAND MOVING
ONSHORE BY SUN. SEEING GOOD UPPER LVL JET SUPPORT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OF THE PANHANDLE MON WITH INCREASED WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. BY MID WEEK MODELS IN FAIR DISAGREEMENT WITH NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AK GULF TUE INTO WED.

IMPACT OF THESE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE BANDS OF GALE FORCE
WINDS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS STATES.
THE HIGH WINDS WILL MAINLY BE TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS BARRIER JET FORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO
EXPECTED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH KEEPING LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY MID WEEK MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS BUT SNOW LEVELS ATTM ARE
STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MAIN REGIONS OF POPULATION FREE OF SNOW.

GFS AND EC WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
WITH EC SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON SAT. WITH
NEXT WAVE ON SUN GFS NOW STRONGER BUT EC STILL CLOSE. BY THIS
TIME NAM MORE OF AN OUTLIER. BY TUE MODEL CONSENSUS FALLS APART.
GFS TRACKS A 990 MB LOW STRAIGHT ACROSS THE AK GULF WHILE EC KEEPS
A 976 MB LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST NEAR KODIAK. ENSEMBLES CLUSTERING
MORE TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION. UPDATED GRIDS OUT TO DAY 3 WITH A
BLEND OF GFS/EC...THEN TRENDED TOWARD EC/HPC SOLUTION TO DAY 7.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM THEN
DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-041.

&&

EAL/PRB