Storm Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 10, 2010, 10:35 AM AKST (19:35 UTC)

Expired

Jan 10, 2010, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

335 
FZAK51 PAJK 101936 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-110100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
SUNDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE YUKON
AND INCREASE OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. 

$$

PKZ011-110100-
GLACIER BAY-
9 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING.
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-110100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
9 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING.
.MON...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-110100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
9 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
SNOW AND RAIN LATE. 
.MON...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-110100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. STRONGEST
WINDS WEST OF GLACIER BAY. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-110100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-110100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE
MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. SNOW LATE. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-110100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-110100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT...
EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-110100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-110100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-110100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1035 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010 

UPDATED TODAY

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 10 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Jan 10, 6:33 AM AKST, 4 hours 2 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
633 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...A 956 MB LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO TRACK NW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD THAT COVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF AS WELL AS
ALL OF THE PANHANDLE MODEL THICKNESS VALUES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE FRONT IS AS FAR NORTH AS
CAPE DECISION AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABOUT 16K FEET AS OF 5 AM. ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS BEING REPORTED IN ZONES 27 AND 28 SO FAR WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AT KETCHIKAN. WILL SEE WINDS AND RAIN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
TRACK UP THE PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME VERY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY COVERED BY
WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORY RESPECTIVELY. MORE ON THE
SNOW FOR THOSE ZONES NEXT PARAGRAPH. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS IN ZONES 17 EAST OF
YAKUTAT. HAVE GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THAT ZONE FOR TONIGHT BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WELL INLAND COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER NUMBERS.
HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR ZONE 25 AS ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN
UNPOPULATED AREAS. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE TAKU INLET FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SNOW...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT LOCATION CLOSELY
TODAY.

RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DEALS
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC PUSH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WHERE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE. HOW MUCH
COLD AIR SPILLS OVER FROM CANADA INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TAKU
INLET...WHITE PASS...AND THE CHILKAT RIVER VALLEY AND HOW SOON
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS TURNS INTO A MAJOR SNOW EVENT
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LONG TERM FORECASTER...HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES 20...21...AND 25 VICE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WARNING AT THIS TIME DUE TO FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. ZONES 18 AND 19 CURRENTLY COVERED WITH EXISTING
WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS...BUT IF COLD AIR PENETRATES STRONGER
THAN FORECAST...WILL HAVE TO EXTEND/UPGRADE THESE TWO STATEMENTS.

FREEZING RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER AND HAVE PUT SOME
INTO THE YAKUTAT TAF...WHERE IT IS CONSIDERED TO BE MOST LIKELY
BUT DID NOT GO SO FAR AS TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THAT ZONE.

.&&

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT...WITH A SLOWLY
FILLING LOW IN THE GULF AND A RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST
COAST...DOES NOT DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
UNTIL THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS EARLIER AND ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH LARGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
WARM OVERRUNNING THROUGH MONDAY THE POSITION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BE CRITICAL IN LOCATING AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. MODELS
VARIED BUT THE GFS WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN FORECAST EXTREMES
FOR THE MIDDLE PERIODS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THAT SINCE
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW.

INTENSE ARCTIC OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWARD TO JUNEAU BY MONDAY NIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE COLD AIR AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THAT INCLUDE JUNEAU...GUSTAVUS...AND HOONAH.
WARMER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THE ARCTIC AIR BRINGING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SOUTH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS AT TIMES.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE PANHANDLE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE OUTFLOW BEGINS TO
DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE SMALL CRAFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-028.
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ020-021-025.
 WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
AKZ017-022.
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ019.
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ018.
 MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-033-036-042-043-051-052.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-034-035-041.

&&

FRITSCH/CFD

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.