Small Craft Advisory 721, NWS Juneau, AK

827 
FZAK51 PAJK 012055 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-020100-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 985 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF IS DRIFTING SE AND WILL BE JUST
WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WED.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA IS SPREADING SOUTH AND WILL EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WED.    

$$

PKZ011-020100-
GLACIER BAY-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-020100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-020100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-020100-
ICY STRAIT-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-020100-
CROSS SOUND-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-020100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-020100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-020100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-020100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-020100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-020100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1153 AM AKST WED DEC 1 2010

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
419 PM AKST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SHORT TERM...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN A N TO S
SEQUENCE ALONG THE PNHDL TONIGHT AND WED. THE DRYG MECHANISMS
INCLUD AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK FM YUKON TRRTY THAT IS SPREADING S
ALONG THE PNHDL. AT THIS TIME THE ARCTIC AMS IS ONLY IN THE NRN
PNHDLE AND HAS NOT REACHED A PAGS-PAJN LINE. ABT 00Z THU THE
ARCTIC AMS WILL HAVE EXTENDED S TO ABT SUMNER STRAIT. ONLY MODEST
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE.

 THE MAIN LOW HAS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT TODAY STILL
INCLUDES THE ENTIRE AOR OF THE PAJN FO. AT 12Z THE LOW WAS
ROUGHLY 970 MB 200 NM SSW OF PAYA. IT SHOULD BE ABT 985 MB AT 00Z
AND LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM S OF PASI. THE MODELS WERE ALL TOO
SHALLOW WITH THE LOW. THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL RESULT IN N WINDS
IN THE NRN PNHDL THAT THE MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PICKING UP

 985 MB LOW ABOUT 200 NM SSW OF PASI WILL CONTINUE SE AND BE
200 SW OF PAKT ABT 00Z THU. THE GEN OPEN CELLS SNOW SHOWERS. WILL
BECOME FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN IN A N TO S SEQUENCE TONIGHT AND
WED DUE LARGELY TO THE DRY OUTFLOW OF THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FM N.
CYXY  (WHITEHORSE) RAOB SHOWS WHAT IS BECMING OUR SOURCE REGION.
AT 12Z THE ARCTIC AMS REACHED ABT 780 MB.

 THE WIND FIELD WILL TEND TO DIMINISH ALONG THE OUTER COAST
ESPECIALLY S OF CROSS SOUND AS THE LOW TRACKS S TONIGHT AND WED.
THE N WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS WILL GEN INCREASE IN A N TO S
SEQUENCE DUE TO THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A ARCTIC OUT BREAK OF COLD AIR WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND SLIDING SE INTO BC BY
THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PRODUCE MAX GALES IN NORTHERN LYNN WITH
WIND ADVY NEAR PAGY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES. TEMPS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH LOW 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRI.

THERE WILL BE A PATTERN SHIFT A FAST MOVING UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT
OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AS A LARGE LONG WAVE TROF WILL DIG INTO
THE GULF AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY STRONG
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS. AS THERE IS
LARGE SPREADS IN THE ENSEMBLES AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. THERE
WILL BE SOME WARM UP LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SO A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE DOMINATE OVER THE MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION TO THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM/EC THROUGH FRI THEN HPC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-036-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-041-042-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

JBT/ABJ