Small Craft Advisory 710, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1233 PM AKST FRI NOV 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE GULF. THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALL LOWS ALONG A TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
LOW IN THE BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON TODAY THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY.

 REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF TO THE SE TONIGHT LEADING TO A DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SATURDAY FOR THE PANHANDLE. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF INTO LOWER 20S
AND UPPER TEENS NORTHERN THIRD AND FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING
SOUTHERN HALF. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH INVERSION FORMING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

 NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUPPORTING A 30 KT
SMCR IN LYNN CANAL THAT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS PRES START TO
FALL IN YUKON. WINDS IN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE GAIN WESTERLY
COMPONENT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW SMCR. A SW SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
TO 10 FT.

 GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. USED 12Z NAM12 FOR
GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT BEING ABSORBED BY AN INCOMING
STORM FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RECENT
MODEL RUN HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND OF INCOMING LOW WITH A
BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
GRIDS WITH THE GFS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY
MORNING THEN STAY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE START SLIDING SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

 RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STORM FORCE LOW ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOLID GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AS THE LOW STAYS IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE HIGH IN YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GENERATE
CONTINUED STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE INCLUDING YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

 A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND
SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
CONSIDERABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. BEHIND THE WEAKENING LOW...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL ENHANCE AS
THE BUILDING HIGH IN YUKON MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE SINGLE DIGIT OVERNIGHT
MERCURY READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051.

&&

MM/AHN