High Wind Warning 5, NWS Juneau, AK

899 
WWAK77 PAJK 011748
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
848 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

AKZ027-020000-
/X.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100301T1800Z/
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0021.100301T1800Z-100302T0000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
848 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. 

SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM THIS MORNING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ022-023-020000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0022.100301T1800Z-100302T0300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER
848 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-020000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-100302T0000Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
848 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ025-020000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0022.100301T2100Z-100302T0300Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
848 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AKST
THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AKST
THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS ALONG GASTINEAU CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
143 PM AKST SUN FEB 28 2010

.SHORT TERM...FNTL BNDRY MOVG ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE ATTM FM CDE
TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER. THIS IS AN OCFNT THAT IS SLOWLY WKNG AS IT
MOVD AWAY FM ITS PARENT LOW 600 NM S OF PAMD. THE PARENT LOW HAS
A SECOND FNTL WRAP THAT IS LARGELY CNVTV. THIS SECOND WRAP SHOULD
HAVE A REPEAT OF WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO THOSE OCCURRING NEAR
LANDFALL AT THIS TIME. AND SHOULD BRING SFC WINDS FOR THE LARGE
SCALE ENVIRONMENT BACK UP TO CURRENT SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT.

 THAT COMPLEX OF LOWS:  972 MB LOW 600 NM S OF PAMD HAS BEEN  THE
PARENT FEATURE FOR A LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION. A SECOND LOW THAT
WAS ONCE A TRIPLE-POINT FEATURE IS 973 MB AND ABT 200 NM SE OF
PADQ. A THIRD LOW IS 976 MB AND ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PACV,
AND WAS A MORE RECENT TRIPLE POINT FEATURE. THESE THREE LOWS ARE
IN A WEAK CYCLONIC INTERACTION, WITH THIS CMPLX SYSTEM OF LOWS IS
BEING MOVED SLOWLY NE BY A LARGE-SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT
APRCHG THE OLD PARENT LOW FM THE WNW.

 THE LANDFALL OF THE LOW NEAR PACV HAS RESULTED IN AN ONSHORE
FLOW THAT IN TURN IS GIVING A BARRIER ENHANCEMENT TO THE SE
WINDS. THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT WIND EVENT AS THE LANDFALLING LOW
SHOULD RAPIDLY FILL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE IS THE ARRIVAL
OF OUR NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE
HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH TIMING WHEN THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE. THE
GFS IS A BIT TOO FAST BUT DISPLAYS A DOUBLE BARREL LOW STRUCTURE
FOR THE ASSOCIATED LOW NEAR KODIAK. THE EC AND NAM HAVE A SLOWER
ARRIVAL TIME BUT THE EC HAS A SIMPLIFIED SINGLE LOW WHILE THE NAM
IS STARTING TO SHOW A DOUBLE BARREL LOW. THEY ALSO DIFFER ON WHERE
AND HOW STRONG THE 500 MB JET MAX IS. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A 125
KT MAX SOUTH OF 50N ON 12Z WED WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODELS FEATURE A
105 KT MAX ON OR JUST NORTH OF 50 N AT THE SAME TIME. PREFERRED THE
SLOWER FRONTAL SPEED OF THE EC WITH THE LOW STRUCTURE OF THE GFS.
MORE RECENT RUNS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS AS A SLOWING OF THE FRONT IS
NOTED IN THE GFS WITH A MORE COMPLEX LOW SHOWING UP IN THE OTHER
MODELS.

PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COOLER
AIR ALOFT IS ADVECTED IN. 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6 C BEGIN SHOWING
UP OVERHEAD BY TUES NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR WED MORNING AND
LATE WED NIGHT. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
TUES NIGHT WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT COOLED DOWN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW AT SEA LEVEL YET. SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
LIGHT TUES AND WED NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM A RIDGE WILL GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE WET
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT COMES
FOR SAT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017-022-023.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ022-023.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>035-051-053.

&&

JBT/EAL