High Wind Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

290 
WWAK77 PAJK 091751
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
951 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

.A GALE FORCE LOW HAS REACHED THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS GENERATED VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AREA OF THE PANHANDLE AND DIMINISH OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

AKZ028-091900-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-101009T1800Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
951 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING. 



* WIND: STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
  MORNING...HOWEVER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
  INTO THE AFTERNOON. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.




$$

AKZ022-100000-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101010T0000Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
951 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
  60MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-092100-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101009T2100Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
951 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND: NORTHEAST TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ026-027-092100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-101009T2100Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
951 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

OVERNIGHT WINDS PEAKED AT 54 MPH...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES...THEN OVER
KUPREANOF AND KUIU ISLAND WINDS REMAIN VERY WINDY WITH GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 45 MPH THEN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
NEAR KUIU ISLAND AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF PRINCE OF WALES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ020-021-024-100000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.101009T1800Z-101010T0000Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ANGOON
951 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON.

* WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 10 AM THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ025-100000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-101010T0000Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
951 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON.

* WIND: NORTHEAST TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN DOWNTOWN 
  JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTHEAST WIND 
  TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

032 
WWAK77 PAJK 092057
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1257 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

.A STRONG LOW HAS REACHED THE OUTER COAST OF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE
FROM THE SOUTH AND HAS GENERATED VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTHERN OUTER COAST AS WELL AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE INNER
CHANNELS N OF FREDERICK SOUND TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE OUTER COAST N OF
SITKA.

AKZ023-092200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101009T2100Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1257 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WIND: SOUTH WIND WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

$$

AKZ026-027-092200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-101009T2100Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
1257 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WIND: SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH.

$$

AKZ022-100000-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101010T0000Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
1257 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ017-100600-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.101009T2100Z-101010T0600Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1257 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ020-021-024-025-100000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-101010T0000Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU
1257 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON.

* WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 10 AM THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

157 
WWAK77 PAJK 092354
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

AKZ022-100100-
/X.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101010T0000Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
354 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ017-100600-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-101010T0600Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0058.101010T0000Z-101010T0600Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
354 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

WIND: SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ020-021-024-025-100100-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-101010T0000Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU
354 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ027-100615-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0059.101010T0900Z-101011T0000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
354 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY. 

WIND: NORTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-100615-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0059.101010T1200Z-101011T0000Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
354 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY. 

WIND: WEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ029-100615-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0059.101010T1200Z-101010T2100Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
354 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT SUNDAY. 

WIND: SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
627 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010

.SHORT TERM... WIND ADVISORIES EASILY VERIFYING SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING AS ARE GALE AND STORM WARNINGS. THESE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE FROM SE TO NW TODAY STARTING IN MISTY
FJORDS AT 7 AM...KETCHIKAN BY 10 AM...KLAWOCK TO PETERSBURG LINE
BY 1 PM...SITKA TO JUNEAU LINE BY 4 PM. HARD WORK ON PREVIOUS
SHIFTS HAD THIS EVENT WELL COVERED. MINI MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT
ONGOING SOUTH OF JNU WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ALL NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ABATE AFTER SUNRISE AS AIR MASS STABILITY DECREASES
AND MIXING LAYER DEEPENS TO WELL ABOVE RIDGE TOPS. LOCAL MTN WV
FORECAST TOOL SHOWS CONDITIONS BECOMING LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE
DURING THE MORNING. WIND WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER TODAY.

 A 975 MB STORM CAUSING THE WEATHER WAS CENTERED 80 NM SW OF SITKA
AT 5 AM. ITS BROAD CLOUD SHIELD ARCS FROM OFFSHORE TO OVER
YAKUTAT AND EAST INTO CANADA. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
LIFTED NORTH DURING THE NIGHT AND WILL BE NORTH OF PANHANDLE MID
MORNING. BIGGER STORY IS WIND AND RAIN IN DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING AROUND BOTTOM OF LOW CENTER INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. PEAK WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS OCCURRING
ALONG THE LOW CENTERS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. LINCOLN ROCK
LIGHT IN NORTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT PEAKED AT 82 KTS BETWEEN 5 AND
6 AM. STRONGEST WIND REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO SOUTHERN OUTER COAST BELOW SITKA.

 RAIN OVER NIGHT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1.60 INCHES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXITING SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF PANHANDLE
AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT CENTRAL PANHANDLE. GOES IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING COLD CLOUD TOPS FROM SUMNER STRAIT TO
LYNN CANAL WHICH IS INDICATES STRENGTHENING AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE. WITH DEEP LAYER OF SW ONSHORE FLOW
PUSHING INLAND TODAY AFTER LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH...RAIN
SHOULD PERSIST MOST AREAS AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ISSUED MORNING
PUBLIC/AVIATION/MARINE FORECASTS EMPHASIZING WIND AND RAIN HEAVY
AT TIMES. EXTREME WEATHER LIKELY TO LAST 2-3 HOURS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. THE BAND IS TIMED TO GO THROUGH CENTRAL PANHANDLE
INCLUDING JNU CLOSE TO THE NOON HR AND THROUGH SKAGWAY TO YAKUTAT
LATE AFTERNOON.

 NAM/WRF INITIALIZED WELL AS WERE LOWER RESOLUTION
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS. LOW NEAR SITKA IS BOOKING NW AT 40 KTS OR
MORE. BY 00Z SUN ALL MODELS MOVE LOW TO JUST WEST OF YAKUTAT AT
ABOUT 987 MBS. WIND EFFECTS BY THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF
GAS. FORECAST DATA BASE WAS REFRESHED BY NAM AND WRF RR MODELS.
GIVEN TIGHT CIRCULATION ABOUT SFC LOW... SUBTLE CHANGES IN LOW
CENTER LOCATION DURING THE DAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WIND
FIELD...ESP DIRECTIONS. AS THIS LOW LOOSES INFLUENCE OVER NORTHER
GULF TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE SW SAT NIGHT. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW CENTER WILL BE FARTHER EAST AND ACTUALLY MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR KETCHIKAN TONIGHT NEAR 06Z AND MOVE TOWARD
PETERSBURG BY 12Z SUN MORNING. ANOTHER LOCALIZED HIGH WIND EVENT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER TOO BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE
FARTHER EAST NEAR MISTY FJORDS.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MON BUT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. DIFFERENCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK OF A STORM
FORCE LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUE. USED A BLEND
OF THE GFS/EC THROUGH MON THEN BLENDED IN HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE
TO INDICATE THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW. AFTER
THAT DID NOT CHANGE AFTER TUE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH
WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A STRONG LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH FROM DIXON ENTRANCE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS LOW
WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTH THEN AS THE LOW DRIFTS
INLAND THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WITH A BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH WIND ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH SUN AND
SWITCH THE WINDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SMALL
CRAFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF LIFTS NE. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BUT AS THE TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA
THE RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF BUT PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FOR MONDAY A UPPER TROF WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
TROF WILL DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO
SPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ANOTHER BATCH
OF RAIN. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG STORM FORCE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND TAP INTO THE COLD AIR FROM THE NW. STRONG
CYCLOGENISIS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND DEEPEN TO THE LOWER 970MBS. THIS STORM IS GOING TO BE
VERY DANGEROUS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUE
ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL AND INNER
CHANNELS. AS A STRONG LLJ OF 80KT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEATHER FRONT. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE STRONG WINDS
DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE MAX WINDS IN THE
EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DRIFTS WEST OF PASI. SEAS WILL
BUILD FROM 24 TO 29 FT AS THE SWELL MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK WITH
THIS LOW. THE EC BRINGS THE LOW 60NM OF PASI WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
ABOUT 160NM...SO ATTM DID A BLEND OF THE TWO TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTH AND SPLITS WITH PART OF THE ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE YUKON AND A RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THE
ENTIRE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GULF.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026>028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM AKDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020>022-024.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ022-029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-022-033>035-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

TA/ABJ