Gale Warning 310, NWS Juneau, AK

843 
FZAK67 PAJK 091235 CCA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
430 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-100100-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB STORM WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE SAT MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTH LONG THE COAST TO NEAR YAKUTAT TODAY AND WEAKEN TO 987 MB.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND KEEP SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS STRONG. WINDS WILL DECREASE SAT NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY SUN.
 

$$

PKZ310-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
430 AM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010 

CORRECTED TO ADD SUNDAY

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT THIS MORNING BECOMING W OVER THE WESTERN
HALF. N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT EASTERN HALF. SEAS BUILDING TO
11 FT EASTERN HALF...SEAS 5 FT WESTERN HALF. S SWELL IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SE SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

822 
FZAK67 PAJK 092325
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-101400-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
THE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A
LOW IN THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES REACHES THE MISTY FJORDS. THIS LOW
WILL DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. A SECOND STRONGER LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY TO STORM FORCE AS IT REACHES THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE TUE.     

$$

PKZ310-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 9 2010 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS
9 FT. STRONGEST WIND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. S SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
324 PM AKDT FRI OCT 8 2010

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE IS
PUSHING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YAKUTAT AREA.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING NE
INTO CANADA. A 992 MB LOW SE OF KODIAK IS ALSO PULLING THE TROUGH
SLOWLY TO THE NW. A GALE FORCE LOW IS HEADING TOWARDS THE SE GULF
FROM THE NE PACIFIC WITH A TRIPLE POINT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
UNDER SLIGHTLY INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GALE FORCE LOW ENTERING THE
SE GULF THIS EVENING AND TRACK N ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY CLOSE EACH OTHER WITH A
BETTER INITIALIZATION CREDITED FOR THE NAM. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. OPTED THE NAM SOLUTIONS TO REFRESH THE INHERITED
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE GALE FORCE LOW WILL GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND INNER CHANNELS. REFRESHED CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 WITH SAME TIME REFERENCE...AND
ADDED ZONE 23 FOR TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TOMORROW. BREEZY AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SE AK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE SITKA AREA. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS WELL WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO LEAD SOLID SMALL CRAFT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND FURTHER
INCREASE TO A GALE ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...THE GALE FORCE LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SHORT
RANGE SECTION WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL STRONG CYCLOGENTIC
SYSTEMS OF THE SAME FAMILY.  THE SECOND OF THE SYSTEMS DISCUSSED
BELOW WILL BE A STORM FOR MARINE ZONES 51 AND 52 TUE. THE CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE FOR THE GALE 06Z-18Z SUN AND IS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE TUE STORM/GALE SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SLOWER TO REACH A
USABLE CONSENSUS.

A GALE FORCE LOW WILL TRACK N ACRS THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS
ABT 04Z-08Z SUN REACHING 982 MB AND CLOSE TO GREATEST DEPTH. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NNE WI 100 NM SE OF PAKT BY 12Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT BEGINS TO GEN A NEW SFC LOW ABT 120 MI NNE OF PAKT.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE WIDER SPREAD WITH STORM CYCLOGENESIS
THAT IS TO FOLLOW TUE. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE A HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER REGION THAT IS CURRENTLY ABT 1200 NM SSW OF PASY. THE
COMPONENTS OF THIS STRONG CYCLOGENETIC SYSTEM ARE NOT ASSEMBLED
YET, AND THE DETAILS OF THIS ASSEMBLY MATTER A GREAT DEAL FOR THE
SUBSEQUENT CYCLONE EVOLUTION. A CONSENSUS WAS REACHED BETWEEN THIS
OFFICE AND HPC-AK AND THE 0800 ECMWF WAS CHOSEN FOR THE 965 MB LOW
ABT 200 NM S OF PAYA 18Z TUE.

MORE ON THE TUE STORM/GALE: WV IMAGE SHOWS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR THAT FEATURE ABT 1200 NM
SSW OF PASY. THE POLAR FRONT ZONE JETSTREAM IS AT THIS TIME NO
CLOSER THAN 1000 NM TO THE NE OF THE TPW MAX, AND THE PHASING IN
OF THE HIGH TPW REGION WITH THE POLAR FRONT ZONE, ALONG WITH THE
JET STREAKS GENERATED AND SUCH FEATURES AS HOW MUCH HEAT IS
RELEASED BY LATENT HEAT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POLAR FRONT

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKDT SATURDAY FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-043-051-052.

&&

AHN/JBT