Gale Warning 113, NWS Juneau, AK

726 
FZAK52 PAJK 100658 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1000 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-101400-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL STALL ALONG THE OUTER COAST
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-101400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1000 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-101400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1000 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-101400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1000 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT...DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-101400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-101400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1000 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

384 
FZAK52 PAJK 101230
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-110300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 988 MB LOW TRACKING NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-110300-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING
TO 16 FT LATE. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-110300-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-110300-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-110300-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-110300-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1210 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM....SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. AM ALSO SEEING EVIDENCE OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 55N/144W. THE FIRST BANDS OF PRE FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION HAVE ARRIVED OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH A MODERATE
BURST OF SNOW IN YAKUTAT. EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY MARINE WINDS NOW
PICKING UP AS WELL WITH GALES OFF CAPE SUCKLING AND SMALL CRAFT
WINDS OFF CAPE FAIRWEATHER. AM EXPECTING TO SEE THE INCREASING
TREND IN WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS IT LOSES JET STREAM
SUPPORT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING EVIDENCE OF THIS
WITH SHEARING IN THE CLOUD MASS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WARMER AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST.
INITIAL PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT RAIN
FROM CAPE SPENCER SOUTH TO CAPE DECISION. A COLD POOL RESULTING
FROM A WEAK HIGH IN WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS KEEPING TEMPS NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING FROM PETERSBURG SOUTHWEST TO CAPE DECISION...SO
WHEN THE PRECIP DOES ARRIVE THERE...IT SHOULD BE SNOW WITH UP TO
AN INCH FOR LOCATIONS IN ZONES 26 AND 28. NORTH OF ANGOON ON THE
INSIDE...DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 30S TODAY...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING AFTER SUNDOWN TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. HAVE AS MUCH AS AN
INCH OR SO FOR LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND ICY STRAIT AND GLACIER
BAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH. LIMITED
SNOWFALL IN SKAGWAY PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER POPS AS IT JUST DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INLAND AND
NORTH. LIKEWISE FOR THE JUNEAU AREA.

FOR TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE DAY AS
WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR PUSHES INLAND FROM THE GULF. SNOW CHANGING
TO RAIN WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND
LIKELY OR BETTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. SOUTHEASTERLY GALES OVER
THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FROM CAPE SPENCER NORTH TOMORROW
MORNING...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS OVER ICY STRAIT...SUMNER...AND CLARENCE
STRAIT HANGING ON THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXPECT A DEEP AND LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT IT REPLACED BY A NEW DEEP AND
LARGE CYCLONE THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE PARENT LOW AND MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THE EARLIER PERIODS THE
DIFFERENCES HAVE LESS IMPACT ON SE ALASKA WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND
HEAVIEST PRECIP STAYING WEST OF FA. BY LATE WEEK WINDS STRONGER
WINDS PENETRATING THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WILL
CONCENTRATE ON THE FIRST 84 HRS OF FCST AND LIMIT ANY CHANGES BEYOND
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

WILL HAVE A STRONG OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH INTO SE GULF AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN. GFS HAS STORMS IN OFFSHORE WITH NAM
HAVING SOLID GALES ALL EASTERN GULF UNTIL LOW STARTS TO PULL BACK
TO NW. WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN BUT DO NOT SEE WINDS PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND. RAIN
WILL BE HEAVIEST COASTAL AND SOUTHERN WITH MDT AMOUNTS AND JUST
LIGHTER AMOUNTS CENTRAL AND ONLY CHANCE NRN...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
DEL WITH P TYPE HERE. WILL KEEP FAR NORTH ALL SNOW UNTIL SECOND
SYSTEM OVER WEEKEND AND WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A MIXED FOR CENTRAL.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACCUMS DOWN TO A FEW INCHES.

A SECOND STRONGER LOW DRIVES NORTH OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
GFS ADVERTISING STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN SE GULF. MIGHT BE
A TOUCH OVERDONE BUT FITS THE TREND OF SLOWLY MOVING SEVERE
WEATHER SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...GALE
WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ011-021-022-031>036-041.

&&

FRITSCH/MM