Wind Chill Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
138 PM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWEST FROM BANKS ISLAND. UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WARMER AIR NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THE REMAINS OF A WASHED OUT OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA COAST IS SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS IS COMBINING WITH SOME
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS STAYING SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY
WED AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTH
OF A LINE OF ABOUT ARCTIC VILLAGE SOUTHWEST TO UNALAKLEET.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE SOUTH OF ARCTIC VILLAGE THROUGH WED.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA IS WAY UNDER DONE BY THE
MODELS SO THE WINDS THAT MOS IS PRODUCING IS UNDER ACTUAL. THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR EAST RUSSIA AND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE COLD AIR THAT IS PILED
UP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT APPEARS TO TAKE UP LONG TERM
RESIDENCY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 240 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE
MODELS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY TUE
MORNING OR AFTERNOON BUT THEN FORM AGAIN IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WITH A MODERATELY STRONG LOW MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

THE ARCTIC COAST WILL LIKELY SEE COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 10
DAYS OR SO AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE BASED ON CLOUD COVER FOR
THE MOST PART.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ219-AKZ220.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225.
&&

CF DEC 10