Wind Chill Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
520 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

ALOFT...
A RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST BUT WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH TUE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUN 3PM THEN MOVE
EAST INTO CANADA. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING WINDS SOUTH OF 65N
LATITUDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP FLURRIES IN THE EXTREME SE INTERIOR.

SURFACE...
A 1041 MB HIGH NEAR BARROW WILL MOVE OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA AND YUKON TERRITORY SUN PM AND THEN PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL
CAUSE EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST SUN PM. THIS
WILL ALSO CAUSE COLD DRAINAGE WINDS DOWN THE TANANA AND YUKON
RIVER TO DEVELOP SUN PM AND CONTINUE INTO TUE.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
OF ALASKA COAST MON AND THEN DISSIPATE AS ANOTHER FRONT/LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG SURFACE
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MON PM-TUE.

A WEATHER FRONT WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA BY 3AM TUE AND TO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST
BY 3PM TUE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS. THE NAM AGAIN
DROPS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SOUTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER TODAY
THAN DOES THE GFS. THE GFS MOVES MORE OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EAST INTO CANADA. WE AGAIN FAVOR THE GFS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE
GFS HAS A BIT LESS WIND AT 700 AND 850 MB OVER THE INTERIOR THAT
THE NAM. THIS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS WIND OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THAN THE NAM WOULD SHOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

JB JAN 10