Wind Advisory 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

186 
WWAK73 PAFG 171020
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 AM AKDT TUE AUG 17 2010

AKZ225-171130-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-100817T1200Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
220 AM AKDT TUE AUG 17 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP THROUGH THE MORNING. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
427 PM AKDT MON AUG 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
CANADA TONIGHT. THE WARM AND DRY AIR MASS UNDER THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL MOVE
EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TUE AND WED. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA THIS WEEK.

SURFACE...
A THERMAL TROUGH FROM CHICKEN TO ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL PERSIST INTO
TUE THEN DISSIPATE. ISOLATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE.

A 996 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OF
WRANGEL ISLAND TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
JUST EAST OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
HIGH SURF AND STRONG S WINDS IN NW AK WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS A RESULT.

A SECOND LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR UNALAKLEET AS A 999
MB LOW BY 4AM TUE AND TO BARROW AS A 1001 MB LOW BY 4AM WED THEN
DRIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WITH THIS
LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KT DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM
KOTZEBUE SOUTH TUE PM THROUGH WED.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW EXTENDING EAST WILL MOVE TO
AMBLER TO DELTA JUNCTION BY 4AM TUE...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE PM. RAIN WILL SPREAD LESSER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA TONIGHT AND TUE WITH THE FRONT. WEAK TO
MODERATE CHINOOK WINDS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE CHINOOK WINDS WILL END AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN INCREASE WEST OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO WED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A LOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONT IN NW CANADA
WED MAY CAUSE SOME RAIN ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH AT PRESENT APPEARS
AS THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4PM TUE.
AFTER THAT MODELS DIFFER ON LOW ALOFT IN NORTHWEST CANADA WITH THE
NAM BRINGING THE LOW NEAR DAWSON WED ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMF KEEP THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. AT THIS
POINT WE FAVOR THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMF SOLUTION, BUT
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE 40
MILE AREA, WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE CAREFULLY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KT DEVELOPING TUE WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF ALONG
THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM KOTZEBUE SOUTH TUE PM THROUGH WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY THIS PM IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR. STRONG WINDS ALONG
ALASKA RANGE ARE NOW OCCURRING WITH HIGH RH CLOSE TO 30% AT DELTA
JUNCTION AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RH'S MUCH HIGHER IN ALASKA
RANGE AND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL KEEP EYE ON LOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WED NW CANADA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.
&&

JB AUG 10