Wind Advisory 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
321 PM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER LOW NEAR COLD BAY TONIGHT WILL MEANDER
AROUND THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 979 MB LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER SAND POINT THIS
EVENING. IT WILL LIFT NORTH TO BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB BY
12Z WED...THEN FURTHER WEAKEN TO 999 MB WHILE DRIFTING WEST
THROUGH 00Z FRI. A 989 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND BY 18Z FRI. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
EAST-WEST ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THU.

NORTH SLOPE...CLOUDY SKIES WITH FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
WED MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
TONIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG WINDS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...DUE TO FALLING PRESSURE
IN THE INTERIOR AND A RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.
AREAS OF FOG AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

INTERIOR...EXPECT LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN YUKON EAST ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH STEADY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ON THE HILLS. A MODERATE CHINOOK
FLOW WILL SET UP LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO END...DROP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASE THE WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL BUT BE STRONG ENOUGH...ALONG WITH THE LOWERING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TO BE ISSUED
FOR ZONES 223-225-226.

WEST COAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...POSSIBLE ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERIOR THERMAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHINOOK WINDS
WILL SET UP OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS ALONG
WITH LOWERING RH VALUES WILL CAUSE THESE AREAS TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOLID ICE ON THE YUKON RIVER REPORTED BY THE RIVER
WATCH TEAM FIVE MILES SOUTH OF GALENA TODAY. THE YUKON RIVER IS
MOSTLY OPEN 10 TO 30 MILES DOWNSTREAM FROM GALENA. NO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.
&&

RL MAY 10