Wind Advisory 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 PM AKDT FRI APR 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ON TRACK WITH A LARGE 957 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
TODAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT HITTING THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND ON
SATURDAY.

WEST COAST...AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
INCREASE TO 35 TO 50 MPH FRIDAY EVENING ON SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND...WITH THE STRONG WIND SPREADING TO THE BERING STRAIT COAST
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...AND TOWARD MORNING ALONG THE
BERING STRAIT COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW AND
STRONG WIND WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH NOON
ON SATURDAY. BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR ZONE 213 AND 214 UNTIL
NOON, BUT 213 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN WEST
COAST ZONES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 25
TO 35 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ215
AND AKZ216.

AFTER A VERY QUIET WINTER AS FAR AS BERING SEA STORMS GO THE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
INTENSE STORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE WEST COAST.  A MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE BERING SEA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  THE
FIRST SYSTEM THAT IMPACTS THE WEST COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SUN NIGHT.  AS
THE FIRST LOW WEAKENS THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE ANOTHER LOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUN NIGHT.  THE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS AND IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN TAKING THIS LOW TOWARD
BRISTOL BAY BY 00Z WED.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH TAKING THE
LOW TO THE GULF OF ANDRA...AND THE NAEFS FALLS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE LOW LEAD TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ON IT'S EVENTUAL IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. THE MODELS THEN
HAVE A THIRD SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA...BUT THIS FAR OUT THE IMPACTS FROM THIS
THIRD SYSTEM ARE EVEN MORE IN DOUBT.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ212.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ215-
AKZ216.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JK APR 10