Storm Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 AM AKDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT GFS AND EUROPEAN RUNS ARE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TRACK AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE INCOMING BERING STORM
OUT THROUGH 12Z FRI. GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN APPEAR TO AGREE WELL
ON THE TIME OF ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND THE WEST COAST.

PROGGED STORM CENTER POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON
GFS/EUROPEAN MODEL CONSENSUS...

12Z TUE    54.0N 163.5E   967 MB
00Z WED    57.0N 170.0E   952 MB
12Z WED    60.0N 175.0E   952 MB
00Z THU    62.0N 179.5E   953 MB
12Z THU    63.0N 178.5W   957 MB
00Z FRI    63.0N 174.5W   963 MB
12Z FRI    63.0N 169.5W   968 MB

SOUTHEAST GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
LATE TUE EVENING THROUGH AROUND 6 AM WED. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GALES
SPREADING EAST TO KOTZEBUE/NORTON SOUNDS AND ZONES AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ214. SNOW SPREADING TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY
WED MORNING...AND TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE WEST COAST
AND ALSO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR BY WED EVENING.

A MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF AROUND 3.5 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTON SOUND COAST FROM GOLOVIN TO CAPE RODNEY. AT NOME...ACTUAL
TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR ABOVE FROM AROUND 10 AM WED
THROUGH 10 AM FRI...WITH THE HIGHEST TIDE APPROACHING 5.8 FEET
THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OFFSHORE
NEAR THE COAST OF NORTON SOUND FROM WEST OF CAPE DARBY TO WALES.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE BELMONT POINT AREA
IN NOME. BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
THE COAST FROM WEST OF CAPE DARBY TO WALES...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORES OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IN LOW LYING UNPROTECTED AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM WEST OF
CAPE DARBY TO CAPE RODNEY.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTON SOUND COAST FROM WEST
OF CAPE DARBY TO CAPE RODNEY WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST FROM WEST OF
CAPE RODNEY TO WALES AND FOR THE SOUTH FACING COASTLINE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

EAST WINDS 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS OF
THE ARCTIC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES WED MORNING...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A SURFACE LEESIDE TROUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE FOR DAY 4.
SEE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR DAYS 2-3.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ213.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ211.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

RF OCT 10