Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

998 
FZAK52 PAFG 042148
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 PM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-051300-
148 PM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1007 MB LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY.
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT FROM THE HIGH
ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA ON MON.

$$

PKZ200-051300-
NORTON SOUND-
148 PM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-051300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
148 PM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-051300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
148 PM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-051300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
148 PM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

CF/SDB JUL 10

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1253 PM AKDT SAT JUL 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS AND ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES BEYOND TO 60 HOURS. THERMAL TROUGH FROM ABOUT EAGLE TO
BETTLES TO NOATAK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
BE NEAR A LINE OF CHICKEN TO FAIRBANKS TO BETTLES TO KOTZEBUE BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING THE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THEN A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN BRISTOL BAY ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEK BY TAPPING INTO THE ENERGY
SLIDING DOWN THE WEST COAST FROM THE ARCTIC LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

THETA E RIDGE LINING UP WELL WITH THERMAL TROUGH ONCE AGAIN WITH
THE AXIS REAL CLOSE TO THAT OF THERMAL TROUGH AXIS. FAIRBANKS
SOUNDING INDICATES A MORE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAN FROM 24
HOURS AGO WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW TO ABOUT 12000 FT. VERY LIKELY
THAT AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR MAY WELL
DUMP LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER A SMALL AREA...THEREFORE
FLASH FLOODS AREA AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST...THE BARROW SOUNDING INDICATES SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FROM 12 HOURS AGO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD FALL AS FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
BARROW AREA AND POINTS WESTWARD ON THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN STRONG OVER EAST
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM ADVANCING FURTHER EAST
THAN ABOUT OLIKTOK.

WEST COAST...COOLING TREND IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY WITH THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST. RELATIVELY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND EASTWARD. THE BIGGEST IMPACT HERE MIGHT BE THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 25 TO 35 KT FOR SHISHMAREF
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY OVER
THE AREA. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE INS TORE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

INTERIOR...THERMAL TROUGH AND THE THETA E RIDGE DROPPING SOUTH TO
THE AXIS OF ABOUT CHICKEN TO FAIRBANKS TO BETTLES TO KOTZEBUE BY
THIS EVENING WILL BRING THE MOST ACTIVE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF FAIRBANKS WILL BE
SLIGHT AND NONDESCRIPT WHICH COULD BE POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD EVENTS
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS. FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH THERE
IS LIKELY ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW TO DIRECT THE CELLS TO THE WEST.
THE EASTERLY FLOW IS BEING SET UP BY THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA THAT IS SPINNING UP MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY TODAY OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH AND THE STRONG THETA E
RIDGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS
BECAUSE CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

CF JUL 10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
946 PM AKDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE MINCHUMINA         63.87N 152.41W
07/03/2010  M0.98 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN WAS STORM TOTAL FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM.

&&

SAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1225 AM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

AKZ222-041230-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
1225 AM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF FAIRBANKS...ESTER AND THE PARKS HIGHWAY TOWARD NENANA. THE
COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER AT ESTER DOME REPORTED 1.88 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR THE DAY...MOST OF WHICH FELL IN THE EVENING STORM.
WEATHER RADAR ATOP PEDRO DOME ESTIMATED RAINFALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE ESTER AREA...BUT WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ESTIMATED
DOWN THE PARKS HIGHWAY TOWARD NENANA. SOME SMALL CREEKS AND
DITCHES MAY REMAIN FILLED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN
NO REPORTS OF FLOODING OR WASHOUTS CAUSED BY THIS STORM.

RT JUL 10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1227 AM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

CORRECTED TEXT

AKZ222-041245-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
1227 AM AKDT SUN JUL 4 2010

A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF FAIRBANKS...ESTER AND THE PARKS HIGHWAY TOWARD NENANA. THE
COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER AT ESTER DOME REPORTED 1.88 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR THE DAY...MOST OF WHICH FELL IN THE EVENING STORM.
WEATHER RADAR ATOP PEDRO DOME ESTIMATED SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE ESTER AREA...BUT WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ESTIMATED DOWN
THE PARKS HIGHWAY TOWARD NENANA. SOME SMALL CREEKS AND DITCHES MAY
REMAIN FILLED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS
OF FLOODING OR WASHOUTS CAUSED BY THIS STORM.

RT JUL 10