Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
111 PM AKDT TUE JUN 8 2010

CORRECTED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.DISCUSSION...AXIS OF A 500MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN BERING
SEA TO THE BERING STRAIT AND THEN UP TO MACKENZIE BAY...THEREBY
KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC FORCING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO A MINIMUM.
DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AND DIFFUSE THERMAL TROUGH COVERS
THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
ITS WHEELS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN ORIENTATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DRIVERS FOR NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ORIGINATING WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL EJECT NORTHWARD WITH THE RESULT OF LOWERING THE
500MB HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA'S INTERIOR AND NUDGING THE 500MB RIDGE
EAST INTO CANADA.

NORTH SLOPE...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL KEEP THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN SOME DIURNAL FOG AGAIN. WIND
SPEEDS QUITE LIGHT...AGAIN DUE TO THE RIDGE ALOFT. STRONGER WINDS
IN THE FAR EASTERN ARCTIC HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WEST OF BANKS ISLAND HAS SLOWLY
WEAKENED.

WEST COAST...RIDGING WILL KEEP PRECIP AWAY FOR REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. BIG ISSUE WILL BE COASTAL FOG...MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS
NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. INLAND PORTIONS WILL HAVE MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCE AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL
ALSO FACILITATE A VERY WEAK SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND
SPEEDS...SO NO MARINE ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

INTERIOR...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD
FACILITATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST INTERIOR IS LACKING MOISTURE SO EXPECT NO
THUNDER THERE. THIS IDEA IS NICELY SHOWN IN NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS
OF LIFTED INDEX TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THEN BY THURSDAY THE
INSTABILITY BEINGS TO ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT EAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOST SERIOUS CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE DOWN IN THE 30S AND MIN RHS
CAN REACH AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. ACCORDINGLY WILL ISSUE RED
FLAG WARNINGS IN ZONES 219 AND 220 FOR TODAY AND EVEN INTO
WEDNESDAY. SMOKE HAS BEEN QUITE EVIDENT ORIGINATING FROM FIRES
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF ZONE 220. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE MOSTLY WET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WHERE DEW POINTS ARE UP AROUND 50.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ219...AKZ220.

&&

ES JUN 10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
411 PM AKDT TUE JUN 8 2010

AKZ222-090115-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
411 PM AKDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS CHENA HOT SPRINGS ROAD...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS CHENA HOT SPRINGS ROAD
THROUGH 5 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF TWO RIVERS AND
WEST OF CHENA HOT SPRINGS. HAIL TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

CB