Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

586 
WWAK63 PAFG 150425
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
825 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR...

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH SLOPES
OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...

AKZ221-223>225-150530-
/X.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100515T0400Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-DENALI-
825 PM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES CONTINUE TO BE BELOW 30 PERCENT...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 MPH. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS 
ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
536 AM AKDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND NAM COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ALOFT TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER THE REALM TODAY. THERE
IS ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT LOOKS
LIKE ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH WITH IT...NO
PRECIPITATION. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY...WITH EXTENSIVE CLEAR SKIES.

A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS ARE FORECASTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OVER THE WESTERN ZONES CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
QUITE WEAK AND LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
INCREASING STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING UP THE NORTHEAST WINDS FROM
BERING STRAIT TO DEMARCATION POINT SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DECREASE IN WINDS THERE SUNDAY EVENING. THE USUAL LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE
ARCTIC AND OVER THE OUTER NORTHWEST COAST. THERE ARE LARGE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER INNER NORTON SOUND AND THE KOBUK VALLEY.

THE MORNING POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE
GLORIOUS CLEAR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE SOUTHEASTERN
BROOKS RANGE IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR TODAY...FOLLOWING SUIT OF THE CLEARING UPWIND TO THE SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
IS DECIDEDLY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED INVERTED
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE THE PROSPECTS OF LIGHTNING FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE
LOW...TODAYS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR...AND AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT IN THE DELTA ZONE. AFTERNOON
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM ON THE YUKON NEAR RUBY BROKE THURSDAY EVENING. MILD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTERIOR SNOWMELT ALONG FROM
LATE MORNINGS THROUGH EVENINGS. THE WESTERN MAINLAND DEVELOPED
MORE OF A SNOWPACK THAN THE EAST LAST WINTER SO THERE IS MORE
SNOWMELT OUT THERE THAN THERE HAS BEEN IN THE EAST. COOL NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE PROCESS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ216 AT GALENA.
&&

TF MAY 10