Gale Warning 76, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
120 PM AKDT WED NOV 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND BRITISH COLOMBIA
WILL BE PUSHED EWD INTO CANADA WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES NWD. BY THU MORNING THE SHORT WAVE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MERGES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED OVER THE SW AK MAINLAND.

DEEPENING SFC LOW APPROACHING 55N/145W WILL LIKELY GO DOWN
TO 955-960 MB OVER THE NRN GULF OF ALASKA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STARTING TO FILL. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF GREAT
BEAR LAKE BY THU AFTERNOON...DEEPENING TO AROUND 975 MB NORTH OF
GREAT BEAR LAKE BY LATE FRI MORNING AS IT TRACKS NE. 1030 MB HIGH
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE NE THROUGH FRI AS
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW ADVANCES NWD.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND
ADJACENT MARINE AREAS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH THU. IN A VERY BROAD SENSE...GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS
HAVE SIMILAR 12 HR QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC AREAS
TONIGHT AND THU. SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR TONIGHT...SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND ARCTIC AREAS THU. WILL UPGRADE THE EXISTING BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR AKZ204 TO A BLIZZARD WARNING BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WITH STRONG WINDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF FALLING SNOW AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN AKZ204 LATE TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS AT BARTER
ISLAND WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 50 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND THU.
WINDS IN AKZ203 WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY.

LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDY
CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BY FRI AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RESULTING IN A BROAD
AREA OF WEAKER LOW PRESSURE.

SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND MUCH OF THE WEST COAST BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON
AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA...MERGING
INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL ALSO DRAG A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG WITH IT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF NOV 10