Gale Warning 55, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
331 PM AKDT FRI SEP 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. VERY DEEP 959
MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND IN
THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND RAPIDLY FILL...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES
FILL THE LOW MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ETA OR THE ECMWF.

A 995 MB LOW ABOUT 400 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
AND MOVE TO ABOUT 250 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY BY SAT EVENING.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH ONSHORE OF THE ARCTIC COAST BY
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RAMP UP THE WINDS QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY
AND SHOULD EVEN BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE COLD ADVECTION. EXPECT
GALES NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST IN OFFSHORE ZONES. GIVEN LONG
FETCH DUE TO EXPANSIVE OPEN WATER NORTHWEST OF BARROW...THIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON COASTAL ISSUES.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS OUT FOR ZONE 202. HESITANT TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON THE WARNING AS THEN WINDS HAVE NOT COME UP LIKE
THOUGHT...TO THIS POINT...HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DELAYED.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN SQUALLS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE GOOD COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE WATER.

THE REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR DOWN SOUTH TO THE ALASKA
RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THEN INTERIOR FROM SAT THROUGH SUN.

APPEARS THAT THE COLD LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN MAY LOCK NORTHERN
ALASKA INTO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FROM SAY EAST OF EIELSON AFB ON SUNDAY
WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE INFLUENCE OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
STRATUS AND THE FOG.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ202.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF SEP 10