Gale Warning 49, NWS Fairbanks, AK

240 
FZAK51 PAFG 072241
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
241 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-081330-
241 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1032 MB HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WED. A 992 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE ROMANZOF
WILL MOVE TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND AS A 1005 MB LOW BY 4PM WED AND
THEN MOVE INLAND. A WEATHER FRONT FROM THE LOW STRETCHING EAST
ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
BY 4AM WED AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ225-081330-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
241 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-081330-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
241 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-081330-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
241 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-081330-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
241 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-081330-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
241 PM AKDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SEP 10

574 
FZAK51 PAFG 081111
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 AM AKDT WED SEP 8 2010

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-090215-
311 AM AKDT WED SEP 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE EAST AND
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INLAND. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT AND
BUILDS TO 1022 MB 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ225-090215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
311 AM AKDT WED SEP 8 2010

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.THU...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ230-090215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
311 AM AKDT WED SEP 8 2010

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.THU...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FOG... DRIZZLE.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG... DRIZZLE.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-090215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
311 AM AKDT WED SEP 8 2010

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG... DRIZZLE.
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
FOG...DRIZZLE.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-090215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
311 AM AKDT WED SEP 8 2010

.TODAY...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG... DRIZZLE.
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-090215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
311 AM AKDT WED SEP 8 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

CB/DJH SEP 10

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
415 PM AKDT MON SEP 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA BY WED. COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
EAST WITH THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THIS FEATURE NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER.

A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT NOW BUILDING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL MOVE
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER TONIGHT AND EAST INTO CANADA TUE. THERE IS
SOME CLEARING UNDER THIS RIDGE, AND WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE CLEARING AREAS.

SURFACE...
A 1030 MB HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN.

A 979 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO WESTERN
NORTON SOUND AS A 993 MB LOW BY 4AM TUE AND TO NEAR TELLER AS A
995 MB LOW BY 4AM WED. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA AS A 996 M LOW BY 4AM
TUE...TO TELLER AS A 992 MB LOW BY 4PM TUE AND THEN MERGE WITH THE
FIRST LOW TUE NIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH THE LOWS.
WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE AND MCGRATH FOLLOWING THE TRACK
OF THE MERGING LOWS. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE TO .5 TO 1.0 INCH IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST.

THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW STRETCHES FROM THE
CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND IS NOW CAUSING SOME
LIGHT RAIN.

A WEATHER FRONT FROM THE SECOND LOW WILL MOVE TO THE BERING
STRAIT TO ANAKTUVUK TO FAIRBANKS BY 4PM TUE AND TO JUST NORTH OF
THE ARCTIC COAST AND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER OF ALASKA BY 4AM WED.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE .5 TO
1.0 INCH IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND LESSER AMOUNTS AND LESSER
PROBABILITIES TO THE EAST.

WILL SEE SE WINDS 25-35 KT AHEAD OF THE LOWS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.
WINDS WILL TURN SW 30KT SOUTH OF THE LOWS ONCE THEY MERGE.
WILL SEE WEAK CHINOOK WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND BROOKS
RANGE TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM
TUE. AFTER THAT...THE NAM KEEPS THE BERING SEA VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS DOES ON TUE PM AND WED. SINCE
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY MOVING NE INTO THE INTERIOR
THIS SHOULD PULL THE LOW NE MORE QUICKLY AS THE GFS SHOWS. THE
ECMF HAS A MORE EASTERLY TRACK SIMILAR TO THE GFS AS WELL. RESULT
IS WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION ON THE BERING SEA LOW TRACK, WINDS
AND RAIN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
WILL SEE MODERATE SURF TUE-WED NORTON SOUND COAST OF ZONES 211.
SE WINDS 25-35 KT WILL HAVE LIMITED FETCH LENGTH SO SURGE HEIGHT
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE MEANING NO COASTAL FLOODING, AND WAVES WILL BREAK
OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TUE HOWEVER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEED TO WATCH HEAVY RAINS ALONG WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT AND TUE. NO FLOODING EXPECTED BUT WILL SEE STRONG RISES ON
RIVERS IN THIS AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

JB SEP 10