Gale Warning 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
301 PM AKDT THU APR 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

WEST COAST...THE LARGE LOW MOVING TO THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY
EVENING IS PROGGED BY SEVERAL MODELS TO BE QUITE HEALTHY IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH APPEARS THAT MOST WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS GUSTING TO MORE THAN 50 MPH IN
THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE TIMING OF THE
WINDS AND THE PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE.
IF BOTH OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY...IT APPEARS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AS WELL AS ZONE 214.
ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE NULATO HILLS MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME VERY DECENT SNOWFALL AS WELL ON SATURDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN
WEST COAST ZONES, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.

INTERIOR...THE LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURED THIS MORNING IN FAIRBANKS
IS SLOWELY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONE 222.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY EAST OF
FAIRBANKS, MAINLY ZONES 224 AND 220.

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THE
START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE WIND DIMINISHING AND THE SNOW TAPERS BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
STRONG SYSTEM SOME RIDGING WILL BE INDUCED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THAT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CANADA BY SUNDAY AND SET UP
FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A SECOND
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE WEST COAST TUE-WED NEXT WEEK...BUT
THIS FAR OUT THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. THE NCEP RMOPS GENERALLY HAVE HIGH MEASURES
OF PREDICTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND LOW
MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

APR 10