Gale Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

188 
FZAK51 PAFG 011647 AAA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
747 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

UPDATED ZONE 245

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-020200-
747 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
988 MB LOW 250 NM NORTH OF SACHS HARBOR WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
BE A 995 MB LOW OVER VICTORIA ISLAND IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AT 3
AM AKST SAT. THE WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE
FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO BARROW FRI AFTERNOON. MODERATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ225-020200-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
747 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT.   
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT.   
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT.   
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT.   
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT.   
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT.   
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.   
.TUE...N WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-020200-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
747 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT.  
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT.   
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT.   
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT.   
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-020200-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
747 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT.   
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT.   
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.   
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-020200-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
747 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT.   
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT.   
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT.   
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT.   
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-020200-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
747 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

UPDATED TO STORM WARNING

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 60 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT...W WINDS 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT.   
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT.   
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT.   
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

TF/JK/CF JAN 10

425 
FZAK51 PAFG 020139
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
439 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-021645-
439 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1001 MB LOW ON NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF BANKS ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN TO 1018 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE
WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM DEMARCATION
POINT TO JUST EAST OF BARROW AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ225-021645-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
439 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-021645-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
439 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-021645-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
439 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING AFTER NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-021645-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
439 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-021645-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
439 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT...W WINDS DIMINISHING TO 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CF/DJH JAN 10

156 
FZAK51 PAFG 021121
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-030415-
221 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1001 MB LOW ON NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF BANKS ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN TO 1018 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE
WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM DEMARCATION
POINT TO JUST EAST OF BARROW AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ225-030415-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
221 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-030415-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
221 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-030415-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
221 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-030415-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
221 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-030415-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
221 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER NOON.
BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

JK/RF JAN 10

597 
FZAK51 PAFG 022322
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-031430-
222 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1003 MB LOW ON NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF BANKS ISLAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN TO 1018 MB BY SUN NIGHT. THE WEATHER
FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN MORNING. MODERATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ225-031430-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
222 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-031430-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
222 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-031430-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
222 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-031430-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
222 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-031430-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
222 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CF/DJH JAN 10

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
506 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ALOFT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW...SWEPT THROUGH THE SOUTH BEAUFORT SEA
YESTERDAY AND IS NOW FAR AWAY IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE SECOND
SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE NOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA
ARCTIC COAST AND THERE IS PLENTY OF WINDSWEPT ACTION...BARTER
ISLAND WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO 47 KNOTS /54 MPH/ AND AT DEADHORSE
WIND CHILLS TO -53 DEGREES F. THIS IS NOT A BIG STORM BY ANY MEANS
BUT IT IS MORE PHYSICAL THAN THE YESTERDAYS SYSTEM.

THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHING THEIR
STRONGEST TODAY...AND TO BEGIN DROPPING OFF LATE TONIGHT. THE
CLOUDS THAT MOVED IN WITH THE FIRST AND SECOND ARCTIC WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON TODAYS MAP REMAIN THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE ARCTIC PLAIN...WHILE THE BROOKS RANGE IS MOSTLY IN
THE CLEAR.

THE THIRD...AND PROBABLY FINAL...SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES IS FAR FAR AWAY AROUND 85 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE AND THE DATELINE. THE MOST RECENT AVAILABLE POLAR
ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN IS FROM YESTERDAY
/THURSDAY/ AFTERNOON SO THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIATE THIS
WITH ANY CERTAINTY. IN ITS LAST TWO RUNS...THE GSM MODEL HAS
FORECAST THIS LAST SYSTEM IN THE SERIES TO HAVE LITTLE STRENGTH
COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSORS.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE BERING SEA FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GSM MODEL FORECASTS MODERATE LOW PRESSURE AND GALE FORCE
WINDS TO SPREAD OVER THE BERING SEA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT...STARTING SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE BERING SEA COAST BUT NOT MUCH SNOWFALL.

IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS...RETURN FLOW ALOFT FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA UP OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO SET
IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS NOT SET UP TO BRING IN A CHINOOK
SO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE CONSERVATIVE.
STILL...THE GSM MODEL FORECASTS TEMPERATURES AT 850 MILLIBARS
/ABOUT 5000 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL/ OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
ZONES TO RISE FROM THE PRESENT -15 TO -22 DEGREES C TO -4 DEGREES
C BY TUESDAY. THIS IS ENOUGH TO BRING SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE...PERHAPS
20 FAHRENHEIT DEGREES.

POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS DID THE IMAGERY YESTERDAY...SHOWS A VERY LARGE AREA
OF UNDISTURBED OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS COVERING THE ENTIRE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...JUST ABOVE EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF FORT YUKON AND
EAST OF TANANA. INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOULD START TO CLEAR
THIS...BUT IT MAY TAKE A FULL DAY TO ACCOMPLISH...AND THE
REMAINING CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE TRAPPED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALASKA RANGE FOR ONE OR TWO DAYS.

LOW CLOUDS ALSO SETTLED IN OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE AND OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY /ZONES AKZ225 AND
227/ ON THURSDAY. THESE NOW APPEAR TO BE THINNING AND STARTING TO
CLEAR WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.

A BAND OF CLOUDS HAS REMAINED FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR TO THE YUKON
DELTA FOR OVER 12 HOURS. NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS...WHICH IS BEING STRETCHED OUT BY OPPOSING AIR
FLOW...SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE DELTA AND NORTHWESTERLY OVER NEARLY
ALL OF THE MAINLAND.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS COMPUTER MODELS
FORECAST THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN SIMILAR FASHION. THE MODEL FORECASTS DIVERGE SOME STARTING
WITH THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. UP TIL THAT POINT...THE MODELS
FORECAST MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND.
THIS IS A WELCOME PROSPECT HEADING INTO JANUARY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ024.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

TF JAN 10