Gale Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
428 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE REASONABLE SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS
DURING THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.  MODEL SPREAD INCREASES EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.

A STRONG 1050+ MB SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ARCTIC WATERS AND WILL
SLOWLY ELONGATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS TO COVER A LARGE AREA
FROM THE EASTERN SIBERIAN ISLANDS TO NEAR THE GREAT SLAVE LAKE IN
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.  DURING THE SAME TIME A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA. THE SQUEEZE WILL BE ON BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WITH A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THAT WILL WEAKEN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS.

COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ONLY SPILL ABOUT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE THE BROOKS RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR
AND INCREASING WIND WILL LEAD TO ISSUES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AND
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

ALOFT...A CLOSED RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA WILL LIFT NORTH AND
ELONGATE OUT ACROSS THE ARCTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE
RETREATING WEST THIS WEEKEND. A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTON SOUND
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OFF INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY
BEFORE RETREATING BACK INTO SIBERIA AND WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND.

THE MODELS DIFFER SOME HEADING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...BUT OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS NOT ALL THAT BAD...AND THE NCEP RMOP VALUES ARE AROUND
AVERAGE.  THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO
MAINLAND AK EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WHETHER OR NOT THE RIDGE GETS
PINCHED OFF INTO A CLOSED CENTER REMAINS IN DOUBT. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT SOME COLDER AIR MAY DROP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN CANADA...AND
THAT AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LOW MAY APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL THE PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ207-AKZ213.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ217-AKZ218-
AKZ219-AKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF JAN 10