Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

107 
WGAK79 PAFG 020211
FFSAFG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
611 PM AKDT THU JUL 1 2010

AKZ221-020530-
/O.CON.PAFG.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100702T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CENTRAL INTERIOR AK-
611 PM AKDT THU JUL 1 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM AKDT FOR
THE ELLIOT HIGHWAY FROM MILE POSTS 70 TO 85...

AT 606 PM AKDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
HOWEVER...THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RUNOFF FROM THE CULVERTS 
ALONG THE SIDE OF THE HIGHWAY AS WELL AS FROM THE HILLS NEAR THE 
ELLIOT HIGHWAY THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 6547 14882 6540 14876 6534 14893 6541 14905

$$

CB

589 
WGAK79 PAFG 020451
FFSAFG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
851 PM AKDT THU JUL 1 2010

AKZ221-020458-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100702T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CENTRAL INTERIOR AK-
851 PM AKDT THU JUL 1 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ELLIOT HIGHWAY
FROM MILE POSTS 70 TO 85...

THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ENDED A FEW HOUR AGO. THERE MAY 
CONTINUE TO BE RUNOFF FROM ANY PLUGGED CULVERTS IN THE AREA...BUT 
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED. 

LAT...LON 6547 14882 6540 14876 6534 14893 6541 14905

$$

CB

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1217 PM AKDT THU JUL 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48
HOURS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE
WITH NONDESCRIPT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ALIGNING WELL
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WAVERING BACK AND FORTH OVER CENTRAL ALASKA FROM A
GENERALLY EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION.

ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ARCTIC COAST FROM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE COAST WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUAL BATTLE OF STRATUS AND FOG
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GENERAL LOW PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
ALASKA. A WEAK LOW IN THE BERING SEA. THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS
STALLED OUT OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY.

SEVERAL LOWS WILL FOLLOW IN SUCCESSION RIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND THEIR TRAJECTORY LEADS THEM RIGHT INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE IMPULSES RIDING RIGHT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND KEEP NORTHERN ALASKA OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FROM THESE SYSTEMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENT THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM ABOUT CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 TO
ABOUT AMBLER IN ZONE 217. THE GENERAL AIR MASS IS PRETTY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THE THETA E RIDGE EXTENDS GENERALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ARM OF THE
THETA E RIDGE REACHING BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THETA E RIDGE SAGS A LITTLE BACK SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT THE
ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT NORTHEASTERN ALASKA MAY NOT AS ACTIVE
AS TODAY OR FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FOG AND
STRATUS REGIME. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND APPEARS TO LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES INLAND OF THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST...MOST OF THE WEST COAST IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE BERING SEA. MEANWHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER CENTRAL RUSSIA WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE SATURDAY. THE GFS ADVERTISES PUSHING AIR
AS WARM AS PLUS 16 AT 850H INTO THE NORTHERN BERING BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL PUSH THE REMAINS OF THE CURRENT
BERING SEA LOW OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN IT GETS
SHUNTED OFF INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
SHOWS THAT THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN SET UP IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA WITH THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE MID RANGE.

INTERIOR...WILL CONTINUE THE UNSTABLE MOIST AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE
THERMAL TROUGH FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE WILL MEANDER
AROUND IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MODELS AND UPPER AIR DATA SUGGEST HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
WHICH WILL ASSIST TO KEEP NEARLY ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OF A WET
NATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
AND THE THETA E RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK BUT WILL SHIFT TO
A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT BY FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHEN IT WILL SHIFT TO A MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT HAS BEEN IN EFFECT FOR THE
TANANA RIVER FROM TANACROSS TO THE ROBERTSON RIVER BRIDGE SHOWS
SIGNS OF EASING. ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN AT
TANACROSS...WATER LEVELS AT TETLIN ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO FALLING RIVER LEVELS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AT
TANACROSS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

CF JUL 10