Brisk Wind Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

461 
FZAK51 PAFG 241126
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
226 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2010

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-250230-
226 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND DOWN TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE SUN. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM WAINWRIGHT JUST INLAND FROM THE ALASKA
ARCTIC COAST TO THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA WILL REMAIN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST CANADA. WEAK 1011 MB LOW WILL
FORM NEAR NOME EARLY MON AM AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER BARROW
MID DAY TUE.

$$

PKZ225-250230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
226 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2010

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR CAPE
LISBURNE SUN AM.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-250230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
226 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2010

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-250230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
226 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2010

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-250230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
226 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2010

.TODAY...SW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-250230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
226 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2010

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SE.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT.
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT.
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT.
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT.
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

TF/DA JAN 10

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
427 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAD BEEN EXPECTED...THE ENERGY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE
BERING SEA AND WEST ARCTIC HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE PEAK WIND AT SAVOONGA...WHERE SOUTH WINDS ARE
ENHANCED BY 2207 FOOT ATUK MOUNTAIN TO THE SOUTH...WAS 55 KNOTS.
AT POINT HOPE...WHERE SOUTH AND NORTH WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY THE
CAPE EFFECT AROUND THE POINT...THE PEAK WIND WAS 50 KNOTS. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
YESTERDAY IT IS SURPRISING THAT NUMEROUS 60 KNOT GUSTS DID NOT
MATERIALISE. THE LOCATION THAT WAS TRULY IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF
YESTERDAYS STORM WAS THE GULF OF ANADYR. ANADYR ITSELF HAD
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 55 KNOTS.

THE SAME PATTERN WAS TRUE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE AMOUNT OF
SNOWFALL ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND AROUND BERING STRAIT COULD
NOT BE MEASURED IN YESTERDAYS BLIZZARD. FROM THE LOOKS OF
YESTERDAYS INFLOW...ORIGINATING BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE...ANADYR AND THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA MUST HAVE HAD A
REMARKABLE FALL OF SNOW.

THERE WAS HARDLY ANY EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE BERING SEA FRONT DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SNOW WAS REPORTED OVER SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND...BERING STRAIT AND POINT HOPE. NO PRECIPITATION MADE IT
EVEN AS CLOSE AS TELLER. THE BOUNDARY WAS TRULY NARROW AND
IMMOVABLE. INDEED...THE WINDS ALOFT AT SAINT PAUL ISLAND FAILED TO
RISE ABOVE 25 KNOTS YESTERDAY. 200 MILES WEST THE AIR FLOW ALOFT
MUST HAVE BEEN 3 TIMES AS STRONG.

THE PATTERN REMAINS SO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE ENERGY WHICH
FLOWED NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA IS NOW OVER THE EAST CHUKCHI
SEA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST MAINLAND IS
BUILDING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA. COOL AND DRY EASTERLY
FLOW IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NAM AND GFS MODELS FORECAST A SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO RISE FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FOR NORTHWAY AND GULKANA...AND
SURPRISINGLY EVEN FOR YAKUTAT...HARDLY RECOGNISE THIS SYSTEM AS A
POTENTIAL SNOW PRODUCER. THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE INCLUDES A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SNOW COULD ALSO REACH THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AT THE SAME
TIME...AND PERHAPS THE REST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.

THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE HIGH ALOFT TO REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON AND ALASKA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY...REASONABLE CAUSE
FOR MORE CLEAR WEATHER. THE REAL CHANGE APPARENTLY IN THE WORKS IS
STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT AND EAST CHUKCHI
SEAS AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AND
TO FURTHER INCREASE WEDNESDAY.

IF THE GFS FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...VERY DRY AND BRISK NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL COME TO THE INTERIOR HIGH COUNTRY...THE BROOKS RANGE
AND THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. SNOWFALL IN THIS SCENE WILL PROBABLY BE
ZERO THROUGHOUT NORTHERN ALASKA...BUT THERE WILL BE HEAVY DRIFTING
SNOW EVERYWHERE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. PARTLY DUE TO THE MIXING
EFFECTS OF THE WIND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UP CLOSE
TO NORMALS.

REGARDING THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
FIRST OF FEBRUARY. OVERALL...THESE MODELS SUGGEST VERY DRY AND
CLEARER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REALM FOR THE REST OF
THIS MONTH. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE SOMEWHAT GREATER STRENGTH
OF CIRCULATION FORECAST BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THIS DIFFERENCE IS
NOT SIGNIFICANT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

ALL OF THIS MORNINGS WEATHER BALLOON DATA SHOWS LARGE TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED UNDER A
LARGE HIGH ALOFT...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSIONS IS QUITE
LARGE...TYPICALLY A FULL 20 CELSIUS DEGREES /36 FAHRENHEIT
DEGREES./ FOR THIS REASON...THIS MORNINGS FORECASTS HAVE FREQUENT
MENTION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS.

THIS MORNINGS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
LINGERING STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE YUKON VALLEY FROM
THE RAY MOUNTAINS TO CENTRAL...OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY...AND OVER THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY FROM EAGLE SOUTHWARD. THESE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED IN
EXTENT IN THE DRY NORTHEAST FLOW NOW ORGANISING. THIS MORNINGS
WEATHER BALLOON DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE TOPS OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
AROUND 5000 FEET...WHICH IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WEATHER STATIONS
UNDER THE BEST OF THESE CLOUDS PICKED UP ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW
YESTERDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

TF JAN 10