Blizzard Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

074 
WWAK41 PAFG 050425
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
825 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

AKZ201-051400-
/X.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0009.000000T0000Z-101105T0600Z/
/X.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0045.101105T0425Z-101105T1400Z/
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE
825 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM AKDT FRIDAY.

THE WIND HAS DIMINISHED AT ATQASUK THIS EVENING ENDING THE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. A NORTHEAST WIND OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE THE 
VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING. 

&&

$$

AKZ202-203-206-050530-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-101105T1400Z/
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK...NUIQSUT...
PRUDHOE BAY...ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK...ANAKTUVUK PASS...
ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE...SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
825 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

A NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ONE HALF MILE. 

$$

AKZ205-051400-
/X.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-101105T1400Z/
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...SINGILUK...UMIAT
825 PM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR THE INLAND PLAIN...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY. 

ON THE NORTHERN PLAIN...A NORTHEAST WIND OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. THE STRONG WIND WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING.

&&

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
502 AM AKDT THU NOV 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT AFTER
THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY. THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE HAS
MOVED NORTH TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
AND WEST TO NEAR GALENA. THIS HAS PRODUCED SPORADIC SNOWFALL OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA. THE CENTRAL TANANA VALLEY FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH
SAW ZERO SNOWFALL FROM THIS WAVE. THE MAIN FRONT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT
AS GENEROUS TO THE INTERIOR AS THE FIRST WAVE WAS.

THE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED NICELY ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE WITH THE
EASTERN ARCTIC GUSTING TO NEAR 45 MPH CURRENTLY BUT VISIBILITIES
HAVE YET TO DROP EVEN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS OF YET AND
LIKELY WILL NOT UNTIL THE FIRST WAVE IS ABLE TO MOVE UP TO THE
ARCTIC COAST AND PRODUCE SOME SNOWFALL ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS
TO GET THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO BLIZZARD CRITERIA. THE WINDS SHOULD
START WINDING DOWN A BIT LATER TONIGHT. THE WESTERN ARCTIC NEEDS
TO BRACE THEMSELVES FOR THE INCREASED WIND THAT IS ABOUT TO BEGIN
ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE GOING TO CAUSE HIGH SURF IN THE AREA AROUND POINT HOPE AND
MUCH EROSION TO THE BEACH HAS ALREADY TAKING PLACE.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE WEST COAST IS THE FACT THAT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL AGAIN START BACK UP TO SAY NORTHERLY AT ABOUT 30 TO 35
KT THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. T

HE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SAT NIGHT THAT AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG 160W AND WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS AND IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN
OUT OF PHASE BY TUESDAY AS THE GFS MOVES SOME LOW HEIGHT RIDGING
ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS SOME BROAD
TROUGHING. ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THE GFS HAS A TROUGH
WHERE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A RIDGE. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN BECOMES OUT
OF PHASE BY TUESDAY. OVERALL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES WITH
TIME AS DO THE NCEP RMOPS WHICH QUICKLY DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE
RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE STORMINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE GULF OF AK WITH NO MAJOR
STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN AK. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND A BIT COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
DAY 7.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CF NOV 10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
231 PM AKDT THU NOV 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     BLIZZARD         ATQASUK                 70.47N 157.41W
11/04/2010                                      AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEGAN AT ATQASUK AT 1 PM WITH
            VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN BLOWING SNOW AND NORTHEAST WINDS
            35 TO 45 MPH.

&&

CB