Blizzard Warning 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
513 AM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL PERSIST AND DRIFT TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TO 150 W LATITUDE BY THE WEEKEND.
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW
NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO
270 MILES NORTHEAST OF KAKTOVIK 3AM WED THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT
NORTHWEST WED NIGHT AND THU.

SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTH SLOPE...AND SOUTH OVER THE NORTH
BERING SEA...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR BY WED AM
WHILE DRIFTING A BIT EAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA. 1005 MB LOW
NORTHEAST OF BANKS ISLAND FILLING TO 1032 MB DUE WEST OF BANKS
ISLAND 3PM WED AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATING.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER RUSSIA FAR EAST WEDNESDAY THEN
SHIFTING EAST TOWARD WESTERN ALASKA THU.

MODELS...PREFER GFS IN HANDLING HIGH ARCTIC LOW...AS IT IS A BIT
DEEPER THROUGH TIME. IN MEDIUM TERM THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS IN MOVING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE BERING SEA
RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONGER AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

NORTH SLOPE...WEST WINDS OVER ZONE 204 TODAY MAY DIMINISH A LITTLE
LATE TODAY AND THEN MORE SO ON WED...IN RESPONSE TO HIGH ARCTIC
LOW MOVING SOUTH AND FILLING. HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE BLOWING SNOW THERE AS VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN CATEGORY AT
LEAST SOME OF THE TIME TODAY. EXPECT SNOW OVER ZONES 203 AND 204
TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WHILE SPREADING INTO ZONE 206...MAYBE AN INCH
THERE OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE MUCH LESS WIND AND
ONLY FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS...ON WED NIGHT AND THU
WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY AS SYSTEM OVER RUSSIA FAR EAST DRIFTS
TOWARD ALASKA.

WESTERN ALASKA...NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TODAY. CONTINUED
CLEARING OF MOST AREAS TODAY WITH SOME COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOR INLAND VALLEYS...PERSISTING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO FAR WESTERN AREAS AS SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WORK
THEIR WAY DOWN BACK SIDE OF RIDGE ALOFT. WINDS FULLY ON THE
DOWNSWING...ON WED THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
AS SYSTEM OVER RUSSIA DRIFTS TOWARD ALASKA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS COLD ADVECTION MOVES SOUTHWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES IT IS NEARLY FINISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
ONES...THUS WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR 218 JUST INTO LATE
MORNING. ADVISORIES FOR 225 AND 226 LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
WINDS FROM TRIMS CAMP AND DENALI PARK HAVE PICKED UP...EXTENDED
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIND
CHILLS TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AS TEMPERATURES DROP. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AND TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD IN VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ218-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

JL DEC 10