Storm Warning 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

650 
FZAK52 PAFC 030011
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF ANADYR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A
972 MB LOW 700 MN SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST
OF DUTCH HARBOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AT 973 MB.

$$

PKZ150-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-031500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-031500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 01 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE INTENSITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING AND THE POTENCY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ARCTIC LOW. MODELS ALSO CAPTURE THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH REGION ADEQUATELY. THERE IS RELATIVE
AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
NAM WAS USED FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION AND
DEPICTION OF COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHILE A BLEND OF
MODELS WAS USED TO CAPTURE THE PROGRESSION OF LOWS NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE IN THE POSITION OF THIS LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES BY MONDAY MORNING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STRETCHING FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE BERING SEA. A POTENT LOW CENTERED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA SPRAWLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE WEST JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOWS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LIES ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTH CENTRAL...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE. THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING INDICATES A STEEP INVERSION...A
DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE...AND HIGH SURFACE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WITH NO EXPECTED CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS...FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ANCHORAGE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE FOG WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING WILL HELP TO CLEAR
THE FOG THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE GULF COAST. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL MONDAY WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KODIAK ISLAND AND COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STRONGER WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING...GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY AS A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD AGAIN ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AND A GRADUAL RETURN TO NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 138 170 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 10