Storm Warning 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312340
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011400-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 MB LOW 170 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE
100 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THU MORNING. A 996 MB LOW 400 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 990 MB 200 NM NORTH OF ATKA
THU EVENING THEN WEAKEN TO 994 MB 360 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK FRI
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 19
FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT...INCREASING TO NW 40 KT DURING THE EVENING.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
ALONG THE COAST.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW DURING THE EVENING. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 11
FT...EXCEPT 5 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT...DIMINISHING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT DURING THE EVENING.
GUSTS TO 45 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-011400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT...BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT...BECOMING W DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 30 2010

UPDATED FOR NEW BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 181

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REGION CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE A REGION STRETCHING FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA TO THE WESTERN
NORTH PACIFIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE
BERING IS CENTERED NORTH OF KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SMALLER AND WEAKER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA WHILE A BROAD WEAK LOW SITS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE
WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA. A POWERFUL 180 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS RIDGE WHILE A 160 KT JET
IS STRENGTHENING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 975 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY 200 MILES SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS WITHIN PROXIMITY OF THE 160 KT JET
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IT IS LOCATED
WITHIN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHERE LOWS WEAKEN DUE TO
SINKING AIR. IN CONTRAST... A POTENT 968 MB LOW 450 MILES SOUTH OF
SHEMYA IS LOCATED WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE WESTERN JET
WHERE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IS SUPPORTED.  AS A RESULT THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH TOMORROW AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. A FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE STRONG
LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
DISSIPATION OF THE GULF LOW AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE ALEUTIAN
LOW IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...THE NAM IN PARTICULAR WAS TOO MOIST
THIS MORNING AND WAS DEPICTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
REGION WHERE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXISTED. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR THE SHORT TERM IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. THE ECMWF WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS TODAY BUT A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW
WITHIN THE SUSITNA VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...THE AIR WILL REMAIN TOO DRY OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA FOR
STEADY PRECIPITATION. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AS WELL...WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE TODAY IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS STONEY WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL A
POSSIBILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN BERING COAST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AS COOLER AIR MOVES OFF THE ICE AND OVER THE OPEN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TONIGHT AS THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHEMYA LOW.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THEN THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REGION ACROSS THE BERING AND THE GULF WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.  AS A RESULT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS NO HINT OF A STRONG WARM UP IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...181 187 195
MARINE...STORM 155 170
         GALE 120 130 132 138 150 160 165 171 172 175 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 138 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN MAR 10