Storm Warning 75, NWS Anchorage, AK

419 
FZAK51 PAFC 081307
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 963 MB LOW NEAR CAPE SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NE OF KODIAK AT
961 MB MON AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
MON NIGHT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE COOK INLET REGION THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 65 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 60 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 50 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 19
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 18 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 K. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 7 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATION IS VERY GOOD AND MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS GOOD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE OS TO THE TRACK ON THE STRENGTHENING LOW THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE COOK INLET REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS HERE IS THAT
THE NAM DEVELOPS ANOTHER MESO LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF COOK INLET MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MESO LOW DEVELOPED YESTERDAY IN COOK INLET
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE PREVIOUS LOW AND THAT FEATURE HAD A
PRONOUNCED IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN THAT REGION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ONE MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKELY SO THE NAM SHOULD BE USED THERE
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST ARE THE
GFS LOOKS GOOD BUT JUST A LITTLE TOO AMBITIOUS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW. BACKED OFF A FEW MB AND BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN
CENTRAL PRESSURES THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA IS THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE 250 MB JET STREAM RUNS DUE WEST TO EAST NEAR 50N FROM
SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THERE IS
A LARGE AREA OF THIS JET WHERE SPEEDS ARE IN EXCESS OF 150 KT WITH A
PEAK NEAR 180 KT. THIS JET IS CURRENTLY FEEDING A STRENGTHENING LOW
THAT IS APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP A MESO LOW
IN COOK INLET MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE NAM MODEL HAS FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BIG STORY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS THE APPROACHING LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF THE KENAI PENINSULA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER
THAT. THERE IS A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
ALSO FOR THOMPSON PASS WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE INLET...THE COOK INLET REGION WILL
DOWNSLOPE OUT THE PRECIPITATION AT FIRST AND THEN THE WILD CARD WILL
BE THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A COOK INLET MESO LOW MONDAY NIGHT
THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA AND MAY BRING MORE GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW TO KACHEMAK BAY.

THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR WIND CHILLS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO. IT LOOKS LIKELY
THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE SOME SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW THAT IS MOVING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. THE
BIG FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND AND
BLOWING SNOW FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING IN THESE AREAS. AS OF RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST BLIZZARD POTENTIAL IS IN THE 161 ZONE WITH
ANY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN 181 BEING SHORT LIVES AND IN THE EASTERN
SECTION.

THE BERING SEA AREA WILL REMAIN IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS WHEN A POLAR VORTEX
DEVELOPS IN THIS COLD ADVECTION OFF THE ICE EDGE. WHEN ONE OF THE
VORTEXES SPINS UP IS CAN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND INTENSE
SNOW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THESE FEATURES ARE BEST SEEN ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND TWO CAN BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR 56N
178W AND ALSO NEAR 57N 175E.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WILL BE IN STORE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD AND FLOW GENERALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. WEATHER SHOULD
CALM DOWN BY LATER IN THE WEEK AS STORM TRACKS SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131 161.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 135.
MARINE...GALE 129 141 160 165 172 180.
   STORM 125 130 132 138 140 150 155.
   HURRICANE FORCE 120.
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 165 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ MAR 10