Storm Warning 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SAT MAR 6 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE GULF
THROUGH THREE DAYS AND THE BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT TWO. IN THE SHORT
TERM ONE ADVANTAGE THAT THE NAM HAS IS THAT IT IS THE ONLY ONE
DETECTING A MESO LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN COOK INLET. THEREFORE THE
NAM WILL GIVE THE BEST INFORMATION FOR THE COOK INLET REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS STRETCHED
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW AND THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 250 MB JET STREAM RUNS SOUTH OF THE LOW AND OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEFORE WEAKENING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
JET SUPPORT OVER THE GULF WHICH GREATLY ENHANCED FRIDAY STORM HAS
MOVED EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW FROM FRIDAYS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA STORM IS
OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS A RESIDUAL MESO LOW IN COOK
INLET. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KISKA WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE JET STREAM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF AREAS THAT HAVE TRICKY FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. COOK INLET IS THE FIRST AREA AS A PRONOUNCED MESO LOW
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KENAI AND WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SNOW BANDS AROUND THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING
SOME DECENT SNOWFALL UNDER THEM. KACHEMAK BAY IS RECEIVING THE WORST
OF IT AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE SPEED OF THIS LOWS MOVEMENT
NORTHEASTWARD WILL DETERMINE WHEN IT IMPROVES THERE.
A POLAR VORTEX APPROACHING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE UPPER LOW IN THE BERING SEA
WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL AS THE JET STREAM. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
BUT THE JET WILL EDGE FARTHER EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT LARGE LOW TRAVELS ALONG
THE JET STREAM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE CURVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA MON. THIS STORM LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH
TO THE ONE YESTERDAY AND WILL BRING MORE SNOW AND WINDS TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF COAST MONDAY. SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE MORE WINDS AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTER THE NEXT LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
ALASKA BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING WILL SHIFT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 150 155 165 170 179.
      HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140 141 155 165 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ MAR 10