Storm Warning 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

232 
FZAK62 PAFC 040000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED MAR 3 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 3 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 MB LOW NEAR 48N 179W TONIGHT MOVES TO 55N 162W THU NIGHT AND
INTENSIFIES TO 950 MB. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
AND WEAKENS TO 959 MB FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 3 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED MAR 3 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN 
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED MAR 3 2010

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED MAR 3 2010

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.  

$$

871 
FZAK62 PAFC 041248
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-050300-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 MB LOW NEAR 48N 178W WILL INTENSIFY TO 958 MB NEAR 52N 170W THU
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO NEAR 57N 156W FRI MORNING. THE LOW THEN MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS TO 977 MB NEAR 64N 152W FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 56N.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W WIND 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

683 
FZAK62 PAFC 050024
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 MB LOW AT 52N 169W MOVES TO 60N 153W FRIDAY EVENING AT 973 MB
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE FRI NIGHT. A 997 MB LOW AT 58N 179E 
FRI MORNING MOVES OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS FRI EVENING AND
DISSIPATES. A 998 MB LOW FRI EVENING AT 59N 179W MOVES TO 58N 163W 
AT 990 MB SAT EVENING. 

$$

PKZ411-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU MAR 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL MSLP INITIALIZATIONS ARE IN GOOD. FORECAST
TREND WITH CURRENT GULF COMPLEX AND CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS ARE SIMILAR AND REASONABLE. MODELS HAVE SHOW SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN TIMING OF NEXT STORM CENTER TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS. NEW
TREND MOVES CENTER ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL
TREND FORECASTS TOWARD FASTER SPEED OF MOVEMENT...BUT NOT GO FULLY
WITH NEW SOLUTIONS UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL CYCLE.
APPEARS THAT THE GFS PRESSURES ON THIS CENTER ARE TOO LOW. ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SHOWS SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH PRESSURE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL RUN. SO WILL BUMP UP PRESSURES SOME ON THE GFS...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS THE EUROPEAN MODELS. MODELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MAKE
TIMING AND INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE SETTLING DOWN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500 MB...WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AS WEAKENING LOW
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA SHIFTS EAST AND BROADENS. THIS
CENTER WILL SPREAD COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND WED. SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF JAPAN INTENSIFIES AS
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AS COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH FROM THE
KAMCHATKA PEN/WESTERN BERING SEA. CENTER DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES TOWARD BRISTOL BAY FRI AFTERNOON. RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CENTER AMPLIFIES AND SPREADS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE AK PEN/SW AK THU
AND THE GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL FRI.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
WEAKENING LOW OVER THE GULF MOVES DRIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES
TONIGHT. TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST BY THIS EVENING THEN WEAKENS INLAND TONIGHT. STORM
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES SOUTH OF THE KENAI PEN WED
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THU.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
SEA...SW AK...AND KODIAK ISLAND MOVES NORTH AND EAST. TRIPLE POINT
FEATURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KODIAK THIS EVENING THEN MOVES
TO SOUTHERN COOK INLET WED MORNING. TRAILING FRONT ELONGATES SE AND
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY WED MORNING THEN INLAND WED
AFTERNOON.

DEVELOPING STORM CENTER OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH A PRESSURE IN THE LOWER 950S THU
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SPEEDING
UP OF THIS CENTER ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. CENTER MOVES TO INTO BRISTOL
BAY IN THE 950S FRI AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES TO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE WED NIGHT THEN TO THE PRIBILOFS AND
WESTERN AK PEN THU AFTERNOON. FRONT CONTINUES TO SW ALASKA/WESTERN
GULF THU.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CONTINUE STRONG ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT...SO GAP WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KENAI PEN/ANCHORAGE BOWL/MAT VALLEY. GRADIENTS
DIMINISH WED. STRONG SE FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TONIGHT LIKELY TO
KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF AND SE EXPOSURES OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AS DOWN-SLOPING TONIGHT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION
INLAND. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AREAS WED WITH
RELAXING GRADIENTS AND WITH WEAKENING FRONT MOVING INLAND. PROMISING
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TO SOUTHCENTRAL AS WEAKENING STORM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS HEADS TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THU AND COLD AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF/KENAI PEN.

.WEST...STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON THE ON SOUTH AND WEST QUADS OF STORM
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. STRONG WINDS WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW LIKELY OF THE EAST ALEUTIANS/AK PEN TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE PRIBILOFS AS SNOW
BLOWING OFF THE ICE PACK MAY PROLONG CONDITIONS AFTER FRONT MOVES BY.
NEXT STORM APPROACHING TO ALEUTIANS STILL HAS TIMING ISSUES SO WILL
WAIT ANOTHER RUN BEFORE ISSUING NECESSARY WATCHES WHICH WITH CURRENT
FORECAST MOVEMENT WOULD SUGGEST. FOR NOW STILL LOOKS LIKE VERY STRONG
WINDS TO THE ALEUTIANS WITH BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
CENTER. WARM ADVECTION EAST OF CENTER WILL BE FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR THE AK PEN/EAST
ALEUTIANS EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLIZZARDS FOR
THE PRIBILOFS LATE THU AFTERNOON AND INTO SW AK COAST THU NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 191.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 130 132 155 165 170 171.
         STORM 172 175 176
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 10