Storm Warning 48, NWS Anchorage, AK

899 
FZAK62 PAFC 021251
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 MB LOW NEAR 54N 175W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N 155W TUE NIGHT
AT 975 MB THEN TO NEAR 60N 149W WED NIGHT AT 988 MB. A LARGE 973 MB
LOW NEAR 43N 168E WED AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY TO 953 MB NEAR 47N
175W WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 56N. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 18 TO 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 TO 16.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...WEST OF 175W...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. EAST OF 175W...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY NORTH OF 55N. 
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 TO 14 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 TO 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 TO 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...INITIALIZATION OF SYNOPTIC PRESSURE FIELDS AND
FORECAST TREND THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEAK ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. CONFIDENCE ON PROGRESSION OF STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS FAIRLY HIGH. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH SECOND
STORM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND CURRENT CENTER AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS
GOOD. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX IN THE GULF IN THE
SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE
GULF MOVE NORTH.

.UPPER LEVELS...
.500 MB...TROUGH OVER THE GULF SPLITS AS NORTHERN PORTION LIFTS NORTH
TUESDAY AND CUT-OFF CENTER MOVES SE AND WEAKENS. TIGHT CONCENTRIC
CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BROADENS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO
OVER BRISTOL BAY ON WED AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS
RELATIVELY FLAT SO WILL SEE BRIEF WARMING OF TEMPS ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS CENTER BEFORE COOLING AGAIN BY MID-WEEK. A SHORT WAVE
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST OF JAPAN WED AS COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS RUSSIA. THE TROUGH INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS EAST WITH A CENTER
DEVELOPING AND MOVING TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS A GREATER AMPLITUDE AND PUSHES WARM AIR OVER
MUCH OF SW ALASKA THU.

.SURFACE...
.SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...WEAKENING LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE NORTH MOVEMENT THROUGH TUE. 970S CENTER NEAR KODIAK
WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS SECONDARY CENTER TO SE MOVES TO THE NW GULF
OF ALASKA TUE. CENTER WILL CONTINUE NW DRIFT AND WEAKENING TREND.
EXPECT WILL SEE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST ALONG WITH STRONG GAP WINDS OVER ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
THROUGH TUE AND COOL SLIGHTLY WED WITH COOLING 850 MB TEMPS. MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE CAUGHT BY THE COAST AND E/SE EXPOSURES
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND TUE. GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE
COAST WITH SNOW OR MIXED INLAND. STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AND ENDS UP IN THE CENTRAL GULF WED AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES UNSETTLE WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...LOWER 960S LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS AFTERNOON TRACK TO UNIMAK PASS TUE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA WED AFTERNOON. STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS CENTER OVER THE ALEUTIANS. HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THIS CENTER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON THE WEST AND SW QUADS OF
LOW WITH COLD ADVECTION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM THE WEST TUE.
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTER AS IT
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CHAIN...HOWEVER EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THOUGH ARE LIKELY IN THE
PRIBILOFS TONIGHT AS FRONT IN ADVANCE OF LOW CENTER BRINGS SNOW AND
WINDS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
PRIBILOFS THROUGH LATE TUE AFTERNOON.  NEXT BIG STORM MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU AFTERNOON AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS AND
ADVERSE WEATHER.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WIND CHILL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL DELTA. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE TONIGHT. SNOW OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ALEUTIAN STORM BRINGS IN MOISTURE TUE. AS STORM
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF WED...COLD AIR IS DRAWN INTO SW
ALASKA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 187. BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 172 175. STORMS 155 170 176. GALES 120 125
150 171 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 10