Storm Warning 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

215 
FZAK62 PAFC 011257
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020300-
400 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 MB LOW NEAR 49N 171E WILL INTENSIFY TO 959 MB NEAR 54N 170W TUE
MORNING THEN MOVE TO 56N 155W TUE NIGHT AT 971 MB. 

$$

PKZ411-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 57N
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO
20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO
19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 TO 15 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 TO 19 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 14 TO 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 55N. 
.TUE...N WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 55N. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
10 TO 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 TO 18 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT.  

$$

733 
FZAK62 PAFC 020032
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 959 MB LOW NEAR 53N 179E MOVES NEAR UNIMAK PASS AND WEAKENS TO
964 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF ALASKA AND WEAKENS TO 977 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 60 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 TO 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO
19 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 TO 16 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 TO 18 FT
SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WIND 35 TO 55 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 TO 20 FT. RAIN TURNING TO SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 TO 12
FT. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.  
$$

899 
FZAK62 PAFC 021251
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 MB LOW NEAR 54N 175W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N 155W TUE NIGHT
AT 975 MB THEN TO NEAR 60N 149W WED NIGHT AT 988 MB. A LARGE 973 MB
LOW NEAR 43N 168E WED AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY TO 953 MB NEAR 47N
175W WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 56N. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 18 TO 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 TO 16.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...WEST OF 175W...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. EAST OF 175W...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY NORTH OF 55N. 
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 TO 14 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 TO 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 TO 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

429 
FZAK62 PAFC 030019
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031500-
400 PM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 966 MB LOW NEAR UNIMAK PASS MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS TO 982 MB. A 960 MB LOW NEAR 48N 179E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES TO 51N 174W AND INTENSIFIES TO 950 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE MAR 2 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...UPDATED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
257 PM AKST SUN FEB 28 2010

UPDATED TO ADD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
COMPLICATED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN UNDER THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
WITH AXIS NEAR 150W. THE JET STREAM IS FLOWING AROUND THE MASSIVE
TROF WITH PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 120 KT IN THE EXIT REGION OVER THE
PANHANDLE...AND 165 KT ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FLOWING AROUND THE TROF WITH THE
MOST POTENT NEARING THE GULF COAST AROUND YAKUTAT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ELONGATED WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE IS NEARING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS LAST ONE WILL PLAY A
MAJOR ROLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS A
VERTICALLY STACKED AND DECAYING 971 MB LOW. AN OCCLUDED LOW IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTH
AND EAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST WITH STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD FROM THE GULF
COAST TO BRISTOL BAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION. STRONG COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA DOWN ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING SEA...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED NW TO SE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES
OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN. THE DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
ARE EVIDENT NOW BECAUSE OF A SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OCCLUSION. THE MODELS WERE TRYING TO PICK ONE OR THE OTHER AS THE
MAIN LOW INSTEAD OF THE DUAL HEADED SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED. BECAUSE OF
THE DIFFERENT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECAME MORE ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AND ESSENTIALLY DOWNSLOPED
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE EVIDENT WITH THE
INITIALIZATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ALONG THE
GULF COAST ARE PUSHING 50 KT WHEREAS ONLY 30 KT WAS INITIALLY
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. SNOW HAS ALSO SPREAD MUCH FURTHER WEST TOWARD
BRISTOL BAY THAN THE MODELS PROJECTED. THESE ARE INDICATORS OF A MORE
POTENT SYSTEM WITH MUCH MORE DYNAMICS THAN EXPECTED...SO FORECASTS
WILL BE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE OUT WEST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE EXITS
THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG THE JET STREAM AND HELPS DEVELOP A STORM
FORCE LOW ALONG THE ALUETIAN CHAIN MONDAY. THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON A
TRACK A BIT SOUTH OF WHAT WAS PROJECTED ON SATURDAY MORNINGS MODEL
RUNS. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A TRACK THAT TAKES THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE PRIBILOFS AND IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE UKMET IS SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. THE MANY MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE CLOSELY PACKED
NEAR THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
TRACK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WILL
ONLY NUDGE TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND
DOWNSLOPE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL INLAND. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AIR THIS
EVENING. SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AT OR NEAR SEA LEVEL AND
REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE
OCCLUSION FINALLY MOVES INLAND...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FULLY WRAP
BACK AROUND TO THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WEATHER A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADING WEST ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND RESULTING IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
40 TO 50 BELOW ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MODERATE AS IT BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE SOURCE AS WELL AS THE
INCREASED DAYLIGHT...SO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
OVER TH NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...FOCUS OUT WEST WILL BE THE STORM FORCE LOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING TO SOME
REDUCED CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 36 HOURS. STILL...EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CHAIN AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CHAIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD COLD ADVECTION
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172 175
         GALE WARNING 120 125 150 155 160 165 170 176 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ZONES 138 150 155 160 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB FEB 10