Storm Warning 27, NWS Anchorage, AK

410 
FZAK61 PAFC 140035
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-141500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 958 MB LOW NEAR 51N 144W WEAKENS TO 973 MB NEAR 57N 149W SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW MOVES INLAND MONDAY MORNING. A 982 MB LOW MOVES
TO 53N 141W MONDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-141500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-141500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE AXIS OF A NEARLY STATIONARY MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. A FIXED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE BERING AND THE
ALEUTIANS. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES RING A BROAD LOW CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...WITH ONE WORKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND TWO
OTHERS ROTATING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING
970 MB LOW IS TRACKING WESTWARD JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL ASSOCIATED FRONTS SPILLING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST OF THREE SYSTEMS TRAINING ALONG A
SIMILAR PATH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS SEEN ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SECOND LOW IS TROUGHING OUT A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE THIRD SYSTEM IS GATHERING
STRENGTH AND POISED TO ROTATE INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MODELS FOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE AOR...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE KODIAK LOW
AS IT MOVES OVER THE AKPEN AND DISSIPATES OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF NEXT
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A SYSTEM THAT
HAS YET TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS HAVE HAD A NOTICEABLY HARD TIME PINPOINTING THE TRACKS OF
THESE SYSTEMS UP UNTIL THEY ACTUALLY DEVELOP...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.
THE SITUATION IS MESSY OUT IN THE WEST...WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING
WITH EACH OTHER AND LACKING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH LOW
MODEL CONFIDENCE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST OUT OVER
THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING. A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS WAS USED TO
FORECAST THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE GULF COAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS. THE LULL
IN THE ACTION WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE CURRENT LOW...THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE SIMILAR AS WELL. THUS EXPECT A
WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON THE UPSLOPE
SIDES OF COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE LOW QUICKLY WEAKENS ON MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INLAND BUT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST INTO
TUESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST...A FRONT BRANCHING OUT OF THE KODIAK LOW IS SPREADING
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AKPEN AND SOUTHERN
REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
SPREAD NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO BRISTOL
BAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AND LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.ALEUTIANS...THE KODIAK LOW IS CURRENTLY SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. WINDS ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AS A LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS DISSIPATES. A SMALL 995 MB LOW QUICKLY
TRACKS OVER SHEMYA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BRING WITH IT A SHOT
OF WET SNOW TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WILL
MARCH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A SEEMINGLY CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS MORE OR LESS STAGNATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT REBUILDS LATER IN
THE WEEK OVER THE PANHANDLE AND YUKON TERRITORY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM GULF AIR ACROSS
THE STATE. THUS EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE WEATHER TAKES AN ACTIVE TURN OVER THE
ALEUTIANS MIDWEEK AS THE JETSTREAM TAKES A NORTHERLY JOG AND
UNLEASHES A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE TOO LARGE TO MAKE ANY
ACCURATE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 138 140 150 172 176.
         STORM WARNING...120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS FEB 10