Storm Warning 268, NWS Anchorage, AK

361 
FZAK51 PAFC 310016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR SITKINAK ISLAND WILL INLAND OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE 
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-311500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S WIND 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-311500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-311500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-311500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. E OF BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 
25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT SHIFTING TO SW 30 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT SHIFTING TO SW 25 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT 
N WIND 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT SHIFTING TO SW 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OF
ALL THE MODELS AND IS PREFERRED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BERING SEA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HAD PRODUCED AREA OF SNOW OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST.
.AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 972 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. IT ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING TO BRISTOL BAY WHERE IT MEETS
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AREAS OF
SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS OCCURRING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE BERING SEA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHIFT IN
THE PATTERN WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO A WARM, MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE WARM FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO
THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM COMBINED WITH THE SNOW COULD POSSIBLY
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EAST END OF THE ARM TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA COULD CHANGE TO RAIN AND
POSSIBLE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO REGION FROM THE WEST WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY. AREAS OF
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT THEN BECOME SNOW
SHOWERS WEST OF DILLINGHAM THURSDAY. THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
KODIAK THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP AREAS OF SNOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL
BAY ZONE AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE FROM FRIDAY MORNING.

.BERING SEA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY.

ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST, JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS, THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CHANGE TO MIXED RAIN AND SHOWERS SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CURRENT LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE
FRIDAY WILL TURN NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING AND BRISTOL BAY
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SEWARD PENINSULA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SNOW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE PRIBILOFS. BLIZZARD WATCH FOR
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 140 172 175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 10