Storm Warning 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

142 
FZAK52 PAFC 271302
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 370 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA TUE
MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 972 MB 300 NM SOUTHWEST
OF ADAK LATE TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY EARLY TUE MORNING
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY EARLY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.   

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE EVENING. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING
E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST SUN DEC 26 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING THE MULTIPLE VORTICES
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. SIMILAR PICTURE AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE MODELS INITIALIZING
WELL ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT THE NAM IS FAR SUPERIOR OVER THE GULF.
FOR THIS REASON...PREFER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM IN THE SHORT TERM
AND WILL BE MAKING VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MID TO LONG RANGE
FORECAST. THE SHORT TERM CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING THE IMPACTS OF THE
MESOSCALE LOWS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS AT THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH
OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND. THE TROUGH IS ALLOWING A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. OUT WEST...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEAST WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVAILING WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT ROTATED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
MORNING ONLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PART OF THE INLAND.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH UP AGAINST THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SIMILAR RESULTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION ALONG
THE COAST AND FLURRIES INLAND.

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW BREAKS DOWN AND THEN REDEVELOPS TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...A
KEY INGREDIENT FOR CLOUDS AND SNOW TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR. THIS
PROCESS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BIG
SNOW EVENTS SHAPING UP LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE REMNANTS OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVER THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. TWO DISTINCT WAVES CAN BE SEEN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO MORE LINED UP TO MOVE OVER
THE SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

THE PATTERN CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY MAY ESCAPE THE HEAVIER SNOW BUT WILL CERTAINLY SEE INCREASED
WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH THE APPROACHING STORM.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. LOCAL GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
COULD RESULT IN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS LIKE
KING COVE. THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE BRIEF SO NO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
MONDAY MORNING AS SOME ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

THE WINDS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A
RESULT OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW DEEPENING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
BERING PERSISTING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AT THAT TIME. LATER
MONDAY NIGHT...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR ADAK AND
ATKA WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONE 131.
MARINE...STORMS 172 175 176
         GALES...127 185 411 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 138 140 141 150 155 160 165
          179 180 185 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 10